If the TVK joins the NDA, there is every likelihood of the AIADMK winning an absolute majority in the 234 seat assembly and wanting to form a stand-alone government.
In turn, it could mean that the BJP especially and the TVK equally so, will want to restrict the AIADMK's seat share closer to the cut-off figure, if only to ensure that EPS won't get the absolute majority that he desires (if the NDA won, that is) and will have to settle for a coalition government, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
With a two-judge division bench of the Supreme Court directing a CBI probe into the September 27 stampede case in Tamil Nadu's Karur town, all eyes are now on the state, especially in the context of next year's assembly polls.
Interestingly, the bench has conceded the appellant Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam's demand in its entirety, by constituting a three-member panel under retired Supreme Court Justice Ajay Rastogi to 'supervise' the CBI probe.
Already social media posts have started speaking about the Supreme Court not having faith in the state police special investigation team (SIT) probe into the stampede in which 41 lives were lost, under Inspector General of Police Asra Garg, chosen by the Madras high court, even before the latter had commenced serious work on the worst-ever political rally stampede in the country.
Some have also asked if by appointing a supervisory panel, without a clear mandate, the Supreme Court Bench, comprising Justices J K Maheshwari and N V Anjaria, were questioning the inherent credibility of the CBI too.
In Monday's order, the Supreme Court bench observed that the Karur tragedy 'shook the nation' and ruled that 'fair investigation is a citizen's right'. The question has since been raised about the material submitted by the appellants, challenging the high court order, based on which the Supreme Court had seemingly concluded that the Tamil Nadu SIT's probe won't be fair.
Citing this and other orders of the kind, issued by the Supreme Court and various high courts, some criminal lawyers have also sought to know the provisions of the criminal procedure laws under which a CBI probe team should be keeping a non-judicial or a non-administrative authority in the loop.
There are also references to multiple other stampede cases of the kind in Tamil Nadu (Kumbakonam Mahamaham, 1992) and elsewhere, including UP and Gujarat, more recently, where no courts had encouraged a CBI probe when the state police was already investigating the case.
This issue is thus likely to be debated even more on social media in Tamil Nadu and on the TN streets, where complaints against the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and 'conspiracy theories' involving the party's controversial Karur strongman and tainted former minister Senthil Balaji abound.
While the state government may be considering to file a review petition, if allowed under the law, there is also mention of their lawyers bringing to the notice of the bench, how two petitioner-parents before the Supreme Court had gone on video-record to claim otherwise.
One grieving father claimed that his signature was fraudulently obtained, with a promise of getting more compensation for his son's death in the stampede.
Separately, a woman claimed that the petition had been filed by her estranged husband of six years, for compensation over the death of their son, whom she had brought up as a single mother.
It remains to be seen if the CBI would probe these cases, or if the two will be encouraged to file separate FIRs in local police stations, for taking forward investigations into those complaints.
It is unclear if the controversial petitions were also the basis for the Supreme Court's verdict, for them to be considered by the state if it chose to file a review petition.
Incidentally, eyebrows were caused to be raised when the Centre, through a purported security assessment, reportedly on a specific request from the TVK, provided Y-Category security for Vijay since February this year.
Questions have since been raised about their role, if any, in protecting Vijay in Karur and other rally venues he had visited in recent months, apart from what was perceived as those provided by film world bouncers, who stuck to the star-politician.
In the immediate context, otherwise, the Supreme Court order would be read into TVK actor-founder Vijay's purported request to the director general of police, Tamil Nadu, for permission to visit Karur and meet exclusively with the families of the victims, all of them in a local marriage hall.
The permission letter, if it's one, reads more like a set of demands, for the police to ensure that no TVK cadre or Vijay fan is allowed near him when his motorcade travels from Tiruchi airport to Karur, a 'green channel' for him to drive down to Karur and back with no road signals, no road blocks and no other traffic on the road.
At present, 'green channels' are identified with emergency transportation of human organs harvested for transplant from a dying person into an afflicted one, without loss of any time. Otherwise, the road clearance and security for the President, prime minister, and also the chief minister are ordinarily governed by mandated rules.
There is no other category in between, and that's what Vijay and the TVK have sought now.
But over the short, medium and long-terms until the assembly polls, the Supreme Court verdict and also the CBI probe, when it provides monthly updates to the supervisory panel, as directed, will be among the key poll issues that will be discussed and debated from every electoral and social media platform.
Yet, there is no denying perceptions of an immediate setback for the ruling party and the state government, which were reportedly prepared for the kind of verdict, going by the obiter dicta passed by the two justices, while hearing the case on Friday last. But that is not saying enough about the political impact of the CBI probe.
First and foremost, it remains to be seen if the CBI team, when put together, would quiz the DMK's Senthil Balaji, against whom political rivals and social media activists identified with them, pointed an accusing finger, as the mastermind of an alleged conspiracy, with the sole and single aim of 'driving Vijay' out of politics and elections.
So far, there does not seem to be any particular material against Balaji, but the very fact of the CBI quizzing him, and also possibly summoning him to its Delhi/Chennai headquarters, could provide the cud for the political Opposition, now comprising the AIADMK-BJP on the one hand, and the TVK itself on the other.
Speculation may then lead up to other higher-ups in the party and maybe the government too, as if there was a conspiracy in the matter and they were all co-conspirators.
While the public view in the matter seemed to have stabilised mostly in favour of the government and against Vijay's own 'irresponsibility' thus far, a Supreme Court order, followed by a CBI probe, has the potential to doubt such assumptions, at least in between.
The question is if the CBI probe would be fast-tracked, given especially the Supreme Court observation that the tragedy 'shook the nation', and led to the arrest of some DMK leaders or identifiable supporters before the assembly polls. If so, or even without it, such a course could dent the DMK's image first, and the confidence of the past months, in being able to sweep the polls, as in 2021, owing to the split in the anti-DMK votes.
Consolidating anti-DMK votes has been name of the game, and the BJP's chief strategist Amit A Shah had begun early by talking AIADMK boss and chief ministerial aspirant Edappadi K Palaniswami into reviving their poll alliance that the latter had broken ahead of the 2021 assembly polls.
It was earlier thought that EPS would tie up with the TVK and keep the BJP out of the alliance. That did not happen and as the purported chief ministerial candidate of the revived NDA combine, EPS launched his solo campaign against the DMK government early on.
Post-Karur, he was the first leader, more than any TVK leader, to point a finger at the DMK and Chief Minister M K Stalin. In more recent days, he cited the presence of TVK flags at his rallies as a welcome sign. He did not clarify if that meant that pushed to the wall, the TVK would sign up with the NDA, or if it would be an TVK-AIADMK combine.
The chances, if any, of the TVK going in for an alliance, now would have to be with the NDA as a whole and not just with the AIADMK.
Until now, EPS has evaded the question of power-sharing, on which the BJP and more so Shah are keen on. If the TVK now joins the NDA and they also win, there is every likelihood of the AIADMK winning an absolute majority in the 234 seat assembly and wanting to form a stand-alone government.
In turn, it could mean that the BJP especially and the TVK equally so, will want to restrict the AIADMK's seat share closer to the cut-off figure, if only to ensure that EPS won't get the absolute majority that he desires (if the NDA won, that is) and will have to settle for a coalition government.
That can cause heartburn in the AIADMK, wherein EPS' moderately successful first-phase campaign covering more than two-thirds of the constituencies, has re-kindled not only hopes but also individual aspirations.
The question also arises: What if the AIADMK is able to muster the numbers either with the BJP or the TVK, to the exclusion of the other?
This apart, any electoral alliance involving the BJP and TVK would be projected as a 'great conspiracy' by the DMK and its allies. Whether convincing the voter or not, especially in the light of the material that the CBI may unearth or produce, it will remain a talking point where a substantial section of 'non-committed voters' had come to believe allegations of the kind against the ruling party at the Centre, leading to the DMK combine's sweeping victory in the post-Jayalalithaa polls of 2019 and 2024 (Lok Sabha), and 2021 (state assembly).
In the DMK combine, where things looked smoother for the leading party, the Supreme Court verdict can be a cause for concern, going beyond the obvious. Alliance parties, especially the VCK, can revive louder talks of more seats and power-sharing. The CPI and CPI-M, with a proven total vote-share of one-per cent (2014), too could wag their tail.
However, it is the Congress ally and Rahul Gandhi who would be watched. Not everyone in the DMK was convinced that Rahul Gandhi's call to Vijay, post-Karur, was either innocent or to advise him not to go the BJP way, even if forced, post-stampede.
The fact that Rahul and Stalin had spoken before the former called Vijay is subject to multiple interpretations that already galore.
In particular, there is a pointed reference to the Congress party's possibly the toughest-ever seat-sharing talks with the RJD leader of the INDIA combine in Bihar, where polls are due next month.
More so, there are also references to the Congress not wanting to name the RJD's Tejashwi Yadav as their common chief ministerial candidate -- as if the party had a CM candidate of its own, or it could win even a single seat without external support.
That is saying a lot about the post-Karur, post-Supreme Court verdict and the evolving politico-electoral situation too in Tamil Nadu.
N Sathiya Moorthy, veteran journalist and author, is a Chennai-based policy analyst and political commentator.