Modi Losing The Gains In Kashmir

Those familiar with intricate Kashmir politics do not rule out further delay in the assembly elections.

Primarily, because the BJP having 'invested' so much for so long in Kashmir would try its best to wait a little longer if only to secure the 'gains' it believes to have achieved after its deafening action on August 5, 2019, points out Mohammad Sayeed Malik, the veteran commentator on Kashmir affairs.

If there is anything certain, at this moment, about Jammu and Kashmir it is the uncertainty about whether the long delayed assembly elections in the Union Territory are actually going to be held 'by September, 2024' as ordered by the Supreme Court and reiterated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his recent visit to the Kashmir Valley.

On the face of it, the pre-election drill is on and the topic is very much in circulation.

Yet, a wiser experience does not rule out the probability of things turning out differently.

The last assembly elections (in erstwhile J&K state including Ladakh) were held in 2014, followed by the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

Since then, everything about the territory has changed -- geography, history and, of course, politics.

The recently concluded Lok Sabha elections was the first major exercise to gauge the parameters of change on the ground and analyse its dynamics.

And it is this particular factor that does not rule out the probability of delayed assembly elections.

To put it bluntly, the ruling party at the Centre which has had a virtual free run on the local ground all these years finds nothing to celebrate or worth selling to voters, not only in the Muslim-majority Valley which has 47 of the total 90 assembly constituencies but also in Jammu region with its 43 segments.

If anything, the outcome of the parliamentary elections has come to them as a dampener.

The BJP lost the only Lok Sabha seat in the Ladakh Union Territory which it had won handsomely in the 2019 elections.

The ground conditions in Ladakh have worsened for the party with political implications far beyond the electoral arithmetic.

The Kashmir Valley has been -- and understandably remains -- as the BJP's most coveted trophy in terms of politics in general and elections in particular. It is an irony that the party was not able to harvest any reckonable gains in rest of the country over its, undoubtedly, bold action in J&K in 2019.

And locally too, as it now turns out, it has not been able to gather any mass on the ground.

Poll results expose the superficial, shallow character of various contraptions set afloat in the local arena in the post-2019 period.

However, the BJP can draw cold comfort from the drubbing of Omar Abdullah (National Conference) and Mehbooba Mufti (Peoples Democratic Party) by the electorate.

But it is also an equally important fact that both these parties did far better in overall assessment.

Both the NC and the PDP remain as substantial reckonable factors in the assembly elections whenever held.

Perhaps a far more significant development of the electoral politics in J&K is that thrown up by the yet-to-be fully assessed dynamics of 'Engineer' Rashid's resounding victory in the Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency.

Impelled by unforeseen 'youth power', the vibrancy of his campaign-in-absentia were felt across the Valley and, to some extent, up to peripheral areas of Jammu region.

Given the unfathomable intricacies of complicated Kashmir politics it is not only important to determine 'who is who' but more important to look deeper and find out 'who is whose'.

More so, when a person under indefinite detention finds a smooth passage to file his nomination, survive scrutiny of his documents and go on to win so resoundingly.

Politics in Kashmir has a long history of the proverbial 'invisible hand' being ever present.

The other aspect of this story is that as far as the emergence of 'youth power' is concerned it requires a closer look.

For, it was here (in the Baramulla constituency) where the electorate were 'gifted' a youth-backed alternative to the erstwhile mainstream contestant (Omar Abdullah) and the voters didn't have to think twice.

They flocked to 'Engineer' Rashid's side lock, stock and barrel.

In contrast, no such alternative/option existed in the other two Valley constituencies, Srinagar and Anantnag. It was like the familiar old pattern.

The NC and the PDP viewed as favourites and untested entities like the Apni Party and Ghulam Nabi Azad's outfit were consigned to limbo.

One conclusion that appears to be writ large is that in the assembly elections, if and when held, would most likely be dominated by the untested 'youth factor' across the board.

Having 'tasted blood' in the Baramulla contest, the restive youth in the valley simply would not stop at that.

Implications of this particular phenomenon are not easy to assess, given the complicated format of Kashmir politics.

It has the potential to rewrite the post-2019 political paradigm, especially as the trial-and-error contraptions floated with New Delhi's undisguised assistance have failed to take off; indeed crashed miserably in the very first trial of strength.

In simple terms, a prolonged vacuum allowed to prevail on the political front in Kashmir is beginning to take its toll.

Obviously, stretching it any longer would only complicate matters. So, the plunge has to be taken with all its concomitants.

However, those familiar with intricate Kashmir politics do not rule out possible further delay in the assembly elections.

Primarily, because the BJP having 'invested' so much for so long in Kashmir would try its best to wait a little longer if only to secure the 'gains' it believes to have achieved on other fronts after its deafening action on August 5, 2019.

Of immediate interest to the people in the state are two main issues: When will full statehood be restored and what would the new administrative structure look like in terms of distribution of powers between the Centre and the state.

Local temperament has grown up in the lap of a semi-autonomous Constitutional structure.

To what extent it would adjust itself in a vastly different environment could possibly be perceived from the outcome of the Assembly elections -- whenever held.

If there is anything definite perceptible it is the feeling of deprivation on this score.

Analysis and political interpretation of results of parliamentary elections held recently for the Six (including Ladakh) Lok Sabha seats underline the need for an imaginative approach rather than a shallow partisan outlook.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com