How BJP Won 1 Seat In Kerala

At least one commentator felt that both the BJP's reach and popularity had been underestimated in Kerala.

They have shown systematic gain; one that seems personality-neutral and therefore institutionalised, explains Shyam G Menon.

The defendants of the tiny village have conceded political space.

Kerala's stubborn denial of a Lok Sabha seat to the Bhartiya Janata Party, often compared in social media to Asterix's village resisting conquest by the Romans, ended on June 4, 2024.

One parliamentary constituency -- Thrissur -- was won by the saffron party.

In Thrissur, the BJP's Suresh Gopi hadn't appeared a prospective winner in the campaign phase despite strong endorsement of his candidature by the BJP's national leadership.

An actor turned politician, Suresh Gopi, in the run-up to the polls, was faulted by some in the electorate for his impulsive, unpredictable, nature.

Thrissur was among the constituencies where the BJP's snuggling up to the Christian church was hoped to pay off.

Seen to work as a counterweight for this was a well-entrenched old Nair vote bank that traditionally voted for the Congress and preferred the Congress's K Muraleedharan, former Kerala chief minister K Karunakaran's son, who was also in the fray.

Despite these equations, on counting day, Suresh Gopi blazed a consistent lead to win by a sizeable margin of 74,840 votes.

Coming in second was V S Sunil Kumar of the Communist Party of India.

In addition, the BJP put up a tough fight in Thiruvananthapuram besides contributing to a photo-finish in Attingal.

Kerala's capital city had looked dicey for the sitting MP Shashi Tharoor of the Congress.

A still prevailing impression of him as an elite sort had denied him the kind of ground level trust, which could shield him from his competitors' allegations that he did little for his constituency's development during his past three tenures as MP.

Tharoor, who was initially trailing the BJP's Rajeev Chandrasekhar, eventually won by 16,077 votes.

Some 25 kilometres north of Thiruvananthapuram, in Attingal, Adoor Prakash of the UDF won by 684 votes.

In Kerala, the LDF government led by Pinarayi Vijayan has been unpopular in its second consecutive term.

This was among reasons why Vadakara became host to a contest some saw as politically significant in Kerala.

It pitted K K Shailaja (aka Shailaja Teacher) of the CPM, who had been a celebrated health minister in the first Pinarayi Vijayan government against the Congress's Shafi Parambil.

The campaign generated much heat and controversy and Vadakara also registered among the highest turnouts to vote in the state.

Speaking to me on June 4 evening, Shafi said that the result from Vadakara was founded on a mandate cutting across caste, religious and political lines.

He committed himself to working for the people.

Tuesday's developments followed several exit polls forecasting anywhere between one and four seats won by the BJP in Kerala.

Interestingly, the only exit poll done by a media house from the state, gave the BJP a blank.

I spoke to three Kerala-based political commentators to obtain an overall perception of Tuesday's results from the state.

The general result of 18 seats to the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and one each to the BJP and Left Democratic Front (LDF) was seen to reflect a definite element of discontent with the Pinarayi Vijayan government despite the election being for Parliament.

Adding to this was the UDF working as if they had no next chance and an old, well-entrenched dislike in the state for the type of politics practised by the BJP.

With specific reference to Suresh Gopi, there was the view that support for him may have cut across religious and political divisions, in part due to his backdrop as a film actor, his charity work, dispute between factions in the Congress (which may have shifted votes) and also due to him having contested and lost before in Thrissur.

There were a few other angles.

At least one commentator felt that both the BJP's reach and popularity had been underestimated in Kerala.

They have shown systematic gain; one that seems personality-neutral and therefore institutionalised.

To complicate matters, the LDF was perceived to have approached the electorate with Modi's return to power as a fait accompli.

That done, they attempted wooing the Muslim vote without realising that the electorate knows the UDF is actually a better vehicle to address issues of such scale in parliament.

The attempt to appease cost dearly.

In southern Kerala, it drove some CPI-M votes to the BJP while in the comparatively less religious north (Malabar), resentment for the incumbent LDF government is suspected to have leaked into the UDF's kitty as the latter's candidates won with unusually high margins of victory.

The results thus exposed the vulnerability of the LDF.

It is also true that for a new generation of voters, the factors cited by the older generation to suspect the BJP and its intentions, may be remote and intangible.

During the campaign phase in Kerala, Vijayan's treatment with kid gloves by the Centre as compared to how some other Opposition leaders were hunted, was raised by Rahul Gandhi (he won in Wayanad by 364,422 votes) to immediate counter attack by the chief minister.

This exchange was yet another moment that deflected the focus of the Lok Sabha election in Kerala from countering the BJP to a contest between the LDF and the Congress-led UDF.

Alongside, there has been the allegation of some understanding between the BJP and the CPI-M over promoting and protecting their respective interests.

The former needed to win a parliamentary seat desperately; the latter needed to avoid the witch hunt that had befallen Opposition leaders.

For political observers, it is a suspicion that refuses to go away especially with the BJP's improved showing in 2024.

The second trend foreseen was that of at least a few Congress politicians quitting their party for the BJP.

However, this cross-over was speculated at a time when the INDIA bloc's fortunes were doubted and may have altered with the strong showing of the opposition at the national level in the 2024 election.

A third rather subtle outcome, could be within the state BJP itself.

The victor opening the BJP's Lok Sabha account in Kerala and those ending near winners, were centrally backed candidates.

It's not a great report card for the party's state unit.

One of the commentators spoken to, highlighted how Modi had backed Suresh Gopi.

Even without electoral data for support, there had been worry among the BJP's critics of the party winning a seat in Kerala.

It was based on nothing but political superstition and gained currency with the growing signs of the BJP losing its grip on the 400 plus seats-narrative for the 2024 general elections.

The premise was simple.

Kerala is among few states in India that has displayed a streak of contrarian thinking.

Two notable results in this regard were that of the assembly elections following the Emergency and the one after the Bofors scandal broke out.

In both instances, the Congress, despite the erosion in acceptance it suffered nationally, was voted to power in the state.

The streak shows up in Parliament polls too.

In the 1977 Parliament elections, when much of the country voted for the Janata Party, Kerala had 11 of its 20 seats won by the Congress.

Closer to the present, in the 2019 general elections, wherein the BJP was voted back to power nationally with a greater majority than before, Kerala dispatched 20 lawmakers to {arliament of which one was from the LDF and 19 were from the UDF (the BJP bit the dust).

In the early flush of the 2019 Parliament poll results (when the BJP drew a blank), that longstanding illustration equating Kerala with Asterix's village in Gaul holding out against the conquering Romans (Narendra Modi's BJP), did the rounds on social media.

What had some critics of the BJP nervous in 2024, was exactly this contrarian bend of mind.

If the BJP was set to win nationally in these elections, then a contrarian outcome in Kerala would have done the Asterix allegory proud.

But if the BJP was waning nationally, then going contrarian in the state yields a different effect.

Will some parliamentary constituency in the state do a contrarian spin of electing a BJP candidate just when the BJP finds itself challenged nationally? This was the concern.

And it came true. The tiny village in a different Gaul has conceded space to the BJP exactly when the party suffered its worst reversal nationally, since 2014.

Shyam G Menon is a freelance journalist based in Mumbai.

• India Votes 2024

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com