India needs to be technologically and militarily prepared to defend itself from both Pakistan and China, alerts Ramesh Menon.
Operation Sindoor is not over. India has said that in as many words.
History has taught India's military and political wings the bitter truth: Confrontation will continue as long as the army calls the shots in Pakistan.
India has attempted peace moves numerous times over the last seven-and-a-half decades, but the army establishment has torpedoed them every single time.
Analysts monitoring the conflict between the two countries say there is no indication that it will end anytime soon.
Both nations have made it clear that they are not carried away by the ceasefire after the 87-hour, four-day war in May this year.
Soon after the Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir that killed 26 tourists, India targeted nine terror camps in Pakistan.
Following casualties on both sides, a ceasefire was announced as fears of a nuclear conflict grew.
The attack was not random. It was planned.
Kashmir was finally seeing normalcy and hope after decades of turmoil.
This was not the narrative Pakistan wanted to see after decades of cross-border terrorism against India.
Tourist arrivals in Jammu and Kashmir reached 2.95 million in 2024, and officials estimated it would touch 3.2 million in 2025.
Elections were held.
New projects were being cleared.
A Vande Bharat train from Delhi to Srinagar was soon going to run. Hotels were doing brisk business.
Tour operators and guides were smiling after a long time as earnings climbed month after month.
Kashmiris were moving out to take up jobs in other parts of India. Students were doing the same.
It was like a breath of fresh air in the Kashmir Valley.
This was not good news for Pakistan. It had to be dismantled. The Pahalgam attack did just that. It was a chilling wake-up call reminder for India not to take peace for granted.
India was in an unenviable spot as it had an adversary on another front -- China, which openly assists Pakistan and has major economic interests in the country.
According to intelligence reports, Turkiye also assisted Pakistan during the conflict.
India may not be directly at war with China, but during Operation Sindoor, China was seen supplying cutting-edge military equipment, including fifth-generation fighters, satellite intelligence, and surveillance systems.
It was also an opportunity for China to test new weapons using another country as its theatre of war.
Both China and Pakistan are likely to be meticulously studying lessons from Operation Sindoor, particularly the effectiveness of India's multi-layered air defence systems and the inadequacies of Pakistan's air defences.
They are also reportedly working to find ways to neutralise India's BrahMos, a long-range supersonic cruise missile used for the first time in a war by India to target Lashkar-e-Taiba's headquarters at Muridke, and other terror training sites in Pakistan in May 2025.
The BrahMos can be launched from submarines, ships, and fighter aircraft.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh recently remarked that peacetime is an illusion. India must be prepared for uncertainty, he said, while outlining how the country is stepping up military production and refining financial mechanisms to stay ready.
Lieutenant General Rahul Singh, the deputy chief of the Indian Army, confirmed that Pakistan received active support from China and used Operation Sindoor as a platform to test its new weapons. Turkiye also supplied military hardware for the attack on India.
Pakistani army chief Asim Munir denied the claims, stating that only indigenously produced weapons were used and that China had no involvement.
But intelligence inputs in India suggest otherwise -- that China not only provided arms and technology but also helped identify specific Indian targets.
China has long been a strategic ally of Pakistan. Let us not forget how Pakistan gifted over 5,000 sq km of Pakistan occupied Kashmir, including the Shaksgam Valley, to China in 1962.
There are concrete reasons why peace between Pakistan and India is a chimera.
The ordinary citizen in Pakistan does not want war or conflict with India. Ask anyone who has visited Pakistan, and they will affirm this. They want peace, progress and freedom. They want to be a part of a growing economy and a nation with promise.
It is the politicians, egged on by the army, who fan hatred and fear about India. It is their only way to stay relevant. Without conflict, the Pakistan army loses its purpose and influence.
War mongering is a policy.
At election rallies, politicians across the spectrum stoke anti-India sentiment, reinforcing the two-nation theory and the logic of Partition as an existential truth.
When Imran Khan became prime minister in 2018, he advocated peace with India, calling it the only path to progress and prosperity.
But eventually, he yielded to pressure from the military, which had always sung a different tune. Today, from Rawalpindi's Adiala jail, he speaks a language that echoes Munir's when it comes to India.
Successive weak governments in Pakistan have failed to stand up to the army's arm-twisting and its grip over governance.
The Pakistan army has no reason to relinquish its power. It has deep monetary interests across sectors -- from the stock market, real estate, and telecom to fertilisers, retail, and even small businesses. It is the only army in the world that operates such a vast economic empire, with money running into millions of dollars.
It has a corporate-military complex to protect.
This phenomenon, known as Milbus or Military Business, was chronicled in Military Inc., a book by Ayesha Siddiqa, a Pakistani senior fellow at King's College, London.
Recently, US President Donald Trump, who has business interests in Pakistan, hosted a reception for Field Marshal Asim Munir. It was unusual, but not surprising.
The US sees a lucrative arms market in Pakistan, including the potential sale of fighter aircraft and munitions in the immediate future.
Let's also not forget that Munir was the ISI chief when the Pulwama attack occurred.
Jaish-e-Mohammad, based in Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the suicide attack on February 14, 2019, which killed 40 Indian security personnel.
Munir will use his extended tenure to project himself as the nation's protector and restore public confidence in the army.
He has revived military nationalism. After Operation Sindoor, no one is questioning or holding him accountable.
The fact that senior army officers attended funerals of terrorists killed in Indian strikes underlines that terror outfits will not be dismantled anytime soon. These groups are seen as vital in keeping India on edge.
India retaliated after the Pahalgam attack by immediately junking the Indus Water Treaty, where water from three rivers was allowed to flow into Pakistan.
Indian politicians from the ruling party screamed their throats out, saying that not a drop of water will now go to Pakistan.
Someone needs to tell them that it was impossible, as that would take years of infrastructure building to divert the water and store it.
It is also bad politics as it will destroy whatever goodwill the common man has in Pakistan towards India.
Pakistan has harboured terrorists for years, believing it offers strategic depth in Kashmir and Afghanistan, and low-cost leverage against a militarily superior India.
India has done well to deepen ties with Gulf nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia -- traditional allies of Pakistan -- and has persistently raised Pakistan's terror links at the UN, G20, BRICS, and through bilateral diplomacy.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government has little credibility or authority.
Since Operation Sindoor, it is Munir who is travelling across the world to shore up Pakistan's image and support.
He was instrumental in securing a $7 billion loan from the IMF to revive Pakistan's failing economy.
In future conflicts, it will be air power that determines supremacy. Operation Sindoor demonstrated this.
It's not just aircraft, but also missiles, sensors, electronic warfare, unmanned systems, and networked intelligence that shape modern warfare.
To counter India's superiority, Pakistan has acquired Chinese fighter jets and conducted joint training exercises.
India, in turn, must boost the strength of its air squadrons and induct next-generation fighters with beyond-visual-range capabilities.
India walks a fine line between strategic restraint and necessary retaliation. It has used diplomatic channels to unmask Pakistan's use of terror as policy.
It is a tragedy that a country as resource-rich and culturally vibrant as Pakistan has squandered seven-and-a-half decades chasing conflict, rather than build its economy, infrastructure, and democracy.
Ramesh Menon is an author, award-winning journalist, educator, documentary filmmaker and corporate trainer. He authored Modi Demystified: The Making of a Prime Minister.
Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff