There is no way that India can conduct nuclear tests now, believes Dr A N Prasad, former director of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre and a staunch opponent of the Indo-US civil nuclear deal.
Speaking on the NSG nod to the India-specific waiver, Dr Prasad told rediff.com, "It is certain that the Indian government has given up hopes of testing nuclear devices in the future."
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Dr Prasad added, "At Vienna, they will fix the language but the intent of the entire issue will not be known."
"Since the beginning of this nuclear issue, the discussion has been revolving around India's commitment of voluntary moratorium on testing. Many countries were not satisfied with it. Even the Indian government started talking about that how Indian scientists have already obtained relevant data from the Pokhran tests. It was said that the government has been advised that India does not require to conduct nuclear tests. Public comments were made that now, computer simulation is sufficient to test devices. This shows that the government is reconciled about giving up nuclear tests. Rest of the fight was to avoid the backlash on the issue," he observed.
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He alleges that, "Somewhere, the government must have given the assurance that India doesn't require testing. The government has already said that India has the legal right to conduct nuclear tests and the United States has the legal right to react. The US has appreciated this statement. After a good amount of investment is done in the nuclear power sector, it will be difficult to return equipments, fuel, spares and resources. Because they have the right to react, your right to conduct tests is unlikely to be exercised at the cost of heavy economic fall-out."
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He pointed out that the International Atomic Energy Agency has stipulated that once an imported power plant comes under the purview of safeguards, it will remain so till it is abandoned or it is unusable.
So, even if the fuel supplies are stopped, the power plants will be of no use to India.
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Prasad did accept that, "The waiver obtained by India at Vienna will help Indian reactors get fuel. In that sense, it will be a great relief. It will help in the short term to mid-term prospects of the nuclear energy industry. But in the long run, it will be detrimental to India's research programme for thorium based technology."
According to Prasad, the nuclear power plant suppliers are bound to influence India's policies, once they enter the market.
"The world is not well tuned to thorium based energy programmes, so the enriched uranium based plants manufacturers will push India in a certain direction," Dr Prasad said.