Pakistan polls on Monday, violence feared

Pakistan goes to the crucial general elections on Monday to elect a new Parliament following a bloody campaign, which witnessed the assassination of former premier Benazir Bhutto and a string of suicide attacks that heightened the country's political crisis.

The shadow of violence loomed large over the polls, with two suicide attacks hours before the end of campaigning at midnight on Saturday leaving nearly 50 people dead and over 100 injured.

Analysts pointed out that Pakistan's problems might not end soon as the polls are widely expected to throw up a hung Parliament.

Over 81 million people are eligible to vote in Pakistan's four provinces and seven restive tribal agencies bordering Afghanistan to choose 342 members of the National Assembly or Lower House of Parliament and 728 members of provincial assemblies.

The government has deployed 81,000 troops and nearly 400,000 policemen to ensure security for the polls and President Pervez Musharraf has warned that there will be "zero tolerance" for attempts to disrupt the elections or to organise protests after the results are announced.

The counting of votes will begin by Monday evening and results are expected the next day.

Opposition parties have alleged that the government has indulged in "massive rigging" to benefit the PML-Q, and Pakistan People's Party spokesman Farhatullah Babar warned the establishment to desist from malpractices on election day as the "results and consequences would be bad for the country".

"It appears as if Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto's fears about 15,000 to 20,000 bogus votes being cast in selected constituencies are coming true as we have seized blank ballot papers and stamps in parts of Sindh and handed them over to the police," Babar told PTI.

Observers said the general election is crucial for all the key players, including Musharraf, PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari and former premier and PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif.

Musharraf faces the possibility of impeachment if the opposition unites to secure a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly and will have to bank on the PML-Q, the party which has backed him since 2002 to do well in the polls to be part of any future coalition.

The latest poll by Gallup, however, put the PML-Q in third place with just 15 per cent of the votes, far behind the PPP (35 per cent) and PML-N (25 per cent).

Zardari, whose PPP is widely expected to emerge as the single largest party, will have to cobble together a coalition to stave off the threat posed to him by the possibility of withdrawal of the National Reconciliation Ordinance, a law passed by Musharraf last year to drop corruption charges against him and his late wife.

Leading political and defence analyst Ikram Sehgal said, "Rigged or not, the elections are going to result in a hung Parliament. But the polls will be relatively free and fair even when compared to the situation that prevailed about 30 days ago."

Sehgal attributed his conclusion to several factors, including Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani's decision to pull officers out of government departments and ministries, the deployment of observers and international scrutiny.

"The withdrawal of army officers from civilian departments has symbolic and real value. It will lessen the military's influence on the civilian bureaucracy," he told PTI.

Zardari has hinted in recent days at taking all political parties along even if the PPP emerges as the single largest group in the polls and observers said this might be part of his efforts to form a "national unity" government.

"He has the sword of the National Reconciliation Ordinance hanging over his head and will need to forge a partnership with either the PML-Q or the PML-N to ward off that threat," said Sehgal.

Sharif, whom observers are looking at as a kingmaker, is ineligible to contest the polls and is banking on a strong performance by his PML-N in the politically crucial province of Punjab to consolidate his influence after being in exile for nearly seven years.

The next government will also have the formidable challenge of tackling the rapid spread of the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Pakistan's north-western tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.

Musharraf has blamed a series of suicide attacks, including the one that killed Bhutto in December, on Pakistani Taliban commander Baitullah Mehsud.

The suicide attacks curtailed the election campaign, with only a few of the top leaders addressing large public rallies.