Pakistan's general elections will be a tough contest between the parties of former premiers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif with the ruling PML-Q trailing far behind, but a majority of countrymen still doubt that the polls will be fair and free, a new survey showed.
In the polls to be held on Monday, Pakistan People's Party of Bhutto, who was assassinated in Rawalpindi on December 27 last year, is expected to get 35 per cent of the votes, the PML-N of Sharif 25 per cent, the ruling PML-Q 15 per cent and smaller parties 15 per cent while 10 per cent were undecided, said the survey conducted by the Gallup during February 9-10.
The PML-N has a notable edge over the PPP in the politically crucial Punjab province, with the support of 38 per cent as against 28 per cent for Bhutto's party and 22 per cent for the PML-Q.
In Sindh, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement is leading in urban areas while the PPP is leading in rural regions. In the North West Frontier Province, the vote is split between the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, Awami National Party, PPP, PML-N and PML-Q.
The survey predicted that the Balochistan province would be fragmented among various national and regional parties.
Gallup also said that a majority of Pakistanis still doubt that Monday's general election will be free and fair but at least a third of them feel conditions have improved, since last year, for holding impartial polls.
In a separate survey conducted on January 26, 51 per cent of respondents replied in the negative when they were asked if the polls would be free and fair in the current circumstances. But the level of trust increased from 15 per cent in early November last year to 31 per cent.
The reasons behind the change included the lifting of emergency, shedding of the military uniform by President Pervez Musharraf, partial restoration of media freedom, the return of exiled leaders and the visible presence of national and international election observers, the Gallup survey said.
"But many problems continue to persist, including the subservience of judiciary, partisanship of local governments and other state functionaries as well as the nagging memories of rightly or wrongly held notions that rulers would go to any length to hang on the authority and would twist and bend the elections rather than accept electoral defeat," it said.
During the February 9-10 survey, 52 per cent respondents said the chances of their voting is high and 37 per cent said it was fair or moderate while nine per cent said they would not vote.
Fifty four per cent of respondents also said there was some chance of violence during the polls. A majority of 67 per cent backed Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani's decision to call his officers back from civilian departments.
Gallup questioned 1,300 men and women in Pakistan's four provinces during the February 9-10 survey.