It is back to 20-20 politics in Karnataka. If it was regarding the 20-month power tenure then, now it is among the members in the Janata Dal (S).
The irony now is that both H D Kumaraswamy and M P Prakash, the man who raised the rebellion, have 20 loyalists each on their side. While the Kumaraswamy faction will support the BJP in the formation of the government, M P Prakash is all set to truck with the Congress.
This development has sent both groups in the JD(S) into a tizzy. The JD(S) has 56 MLAs in the Karnataka Assembly and which way the remaining 16 MLAs will swing will be crucial. At present both Kumaraswamy and Prakash are trying to woo the 16 MLAs to form the government.
If Kumaraswamy supports the BJP with 20 MLAs, it will not be sufficient for them to form the government. The BJP has 79 seats in the 226-member house and with the support of 20 JD(S) MLAs, the strength will be just 99 MLAs.
The BJP will clearly fall short of 14 seats. The required majority to form the government in Karnataka is 113 seats.
Both the Prakash and Kumaraswamy camp are holding talks with the 16 MLAs, who have taken a neutral stand. Sources in both the camps say they are confident of wooing the MLAs.
The Congress has, however, jumped at this opportunity and says that if Prakash manages the support of 35 MLAs then they could form the government.
The Congress, with 65 MLAs, says that their strength would go up to 100 if Prakash joins them with 35 MLAs. The Congress says it is confident of getting the support of Independents and other smaller parties like the JD(U) and the CPI(M) which have 13 seats in all.
The independents had aligned with the Congress when it formed the government with the JD(S) initially before Kumaraswamy ousted them after staging a coup. The Congress now will approach this issue with a two-pronged strategy.
The leaders will meet the Governor at 6pm and take a shot at forming the government if Prakash manages to garner the support of 45 MLAs. In case, Prakash fails in his efforts, then the Congress plans to tell the governor not to invite the BJP to form the government as several members in the JD(S) were against the formation of a government with the BJP.