Conditions in Pak put N-weapons at risk: analyst

The conditions in Pakistan -- political instability, a demoralized army, a burgeoning Islamic insurgency and an intensely anti-US population -- have put the country's nuclear weapons at risk, a leading analyst has said.

Rejecting Islamabad's claim that its arrangements were best in the world, Graham Allison, director of Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, said 'the design of Pakistan's nuclear control system creates a risk of inside theft.'

This system addresses Pakistan's first and foremost fear that if its arch-enemy, India, knew the location of the country's weapons it could launch a pre-emptive attack that eliminated them, Allison wrote in the Newsweek magazine.

Stating the notion that all nuclear weapons were having sophisticated electronic locks and codes were known only to President Musharraf was not credible, he says in that case an attack that kills Musharraf could eliminate Pakistan's ability to retaliate.

Even a quick analysis of the security situation faced by Pakistan's nuclear custodians presents a 'clear outlines of their nightmares and ours,' he says, adding that what made father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb A Q Khan possible to sell nuclear secrets was an extended period of instability in the country.

"Could uncertainty and instability in Pakistan today provide similar propitious opportunities for mini-Khans to proliferate," Allison asks.

The potential disaffection in the army, he argues, increases the odds that mini-Khans might emerge.

The article says with mounting setbacks, including the reconstitution of Al Qaeda headquarters and training camps in Pakistan's borders with Afghanistan, frustration over fighting 'American war' on terror is mounting among Pakistan's national security establishment.

"And as the US and others press the cause of democracy in ways that diminish the traditional role of the army, Pakistani officers' ambivalence about the US may increase," the author says.

Finally, Allison says, the larger society has a negative view of the United States. In a 2007 Pew poll, two out of three Pakistanis named the United States as the greatest threat to their country.

"From this cauldron of combustibles there is no ready exit. It would be a grave mistake, however, to take comfort from the serene assurances of officials in governments, here (in United States) and there (Pakistan), about everything being under reasonable control," he adds.