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Can Pakistan be trusted?
By Dr Subhash Kapila
May 25, 2006 17:09 IST

In the first part of his column, Dr Subhash Kapila, an international relations and strategic affairs analyst, explained the context in which India-Pakistan negotiations of the demilitaryisation of the Siachen Glacier was being conducted. In this the concluding part of his column, he asks if Pakistan can be trusted.

India must be absolutely sure that Pakistan can be trusted with the demilitarisation of Siachen. But the very fact that Pakistan is unwilling to formally authenticate the AGPL in the proposed agreement betrays Pakistan's intentions.

The Pakistan army and its chief, General Pervez Musharraf, cannot and should not be trusted by the Indian political leadership. General Musharraf's credibility is plagued by his dismal record:



J N Dixit on the Simla Summit

But the Indian ministries of foreign affairs and defence remain strangely silent on this issue, which should have been the natural preserve of both these vital ministries. One cannot but help but conclude that they have been asked to keep clear of the subject and let the PMO handle it.

The army objects

The day India accepts Pakistan's refusal to formally authenticate the AGPL in Siachen on maps will be a sad day for the Indian Army.

The dominating heights on Saltoro Ridge was captured by the Indian Army at great cost. A military pullback from the Saltoro Ridge on political grounds and the possible re-occupation by Pakistani forces of positions vacated by India, thereafter, would be the ultimate irony.

Post-Kargil, holding the glacier is costlier. India, like in the past, would be repeating the mistake of selling away its military gains and victories at the negotiating table for dubious political gains from the military ruler of Pakistan, dubbed by the Washington Post as a 'liar.'

Given that he is a serving officer, Indian Army Chief of Army Staff General J J Singh, could not have better articulated the force's strong feelings on the issue when he announced:


The Congress government would be severely answerable to the Indian public should it choose to ignore the Indian Army's professional advice.

The tribe of retired senior military officers enlisted by the establishment to advocate its project of de-militarisation of Siachen does not reflect sound military professional advice. They reflect the views of their patrons, both Indian and external.

Some Questions

Nobody has questioned Pakistan's unwillingness to formally authenticate the AGPL on maps as part of an overall Siachen Agreement, given that Pakistan had formally authenticated the 1949 Line of Control and the 1972 Line of Actual Control.

Arguments that Pakistan would not like to admit that its troops are withdrawing from Siachen, when it has all along been projecting to its public that Siachen was with the Pakistan army, are simplistic.

The Pakistani people know very well that their valiant Pakistan army surrendered at Dacca, lost territory in 1971 in Jammu and Kashmir leading to a new Line of Actual Control, and was evicted from Kargil in 1999.

is very much a part of the Jammu and Kashmir issue. How or why Pakistan is willing to negotiate on Siachen, (even with an annexure) separately when it is not willing to accept the LoC as a border?/DIV/LIBR LIDIVIs there some Pakistan-China strategic angle to Pakistan's refusal to acknowledge the AGPL?/DIV/LIBR LIDIVWhy is Pakistan willing to negotiate troops withdrawal in Siachen but not delineation of the AGPL like the LoC?/DIV/LIBR LIDIVHas this Pakistani reluctance got do something with the Pakistani merger of Northern Areas (part of Jammu and Kashmir state) with Pakistan?/DIV/LI/UL PBThe strategic compulsions/BBRBR PFiguratively and literally, India today has no strategic compulsions to climb down on Siachen. It should be Pakistan that should be climbing down on the issue.BRBR PIndia's nuclear and conventional military predominance on the Indian sub-continent is well established. India has some internal security irritants, but these can be sorted out without any re-deployment from India's borders.BRBR PPakistan's strategic and security situation, on the other hand, is grave:BRBR ULLIThe Pakistan army is over-stretched on the western frontiers from Waziristan and Balochistan, where they face a very serious armed conflict./LIBR LIPakistan needs peaceful eastern frontiers with India to enable diversion of its army to the western frontiers./LIBR LIPakistan needs to withdraw troops from Siachen for their redeployment in Balochistan. /LI/ULBR PThis was an opportune time for India to insist that Pakistan would have to formally authenticate the AGPL in Siachen on maps to be signed by military commanders of both countries.BRBR PIt is strange that the prime minister's strategic advisers cannot see this opportunity that is currently available to India EMvis-s-vis/EM Pakistan and Siachen in particular.BRBR PThen why the Indian climbdown? PBUS pressure/B PIt is well known that the United States has historically been inclined to pressurise India on Kashmir and Siachen in Pakistan's favour.BRBR PThe reasons for the recent intensifying of this pressure can be attributed to:BR UL LI DIVThe US badly needs General Musharraf's continuance as military ruler of Pakistan for its own strategic requirements./DIV/LIBR LI DIVPakistan is becoming restive under Musharraf's seven year misrule. The Pakistan army too is getting restless./DIV/LIBR LI DIVFor Musharraf to continue in power, he has to show both the masses and the army some visible successes or political victories over India./DIV/LI/ULBR PHis continuation in power is a critical American requirement, and hence the US pressure on India.BRBR PMusharraf too is pressurising the US saying that he cannot deliver results in capturing Osama bin Laden and his aides until India is forced to reduce military pressure on Pakistan's eastern frontiers.BRBR P align=centerA class=" href="http://in.rediff.com/news/pakistan.htm" target=_blank ?>More reports from Pakistan

Why a strategically strong India should succumb to US pressure is another question.

India would be strategically ill-advised to repeat the Himalayan blunder of Aksai Chin in Siachen. There are no strategic imperatives that prompt or warrant a strategic climbdown by India.

India's political leadership must recognise that in national security affairs, India has been ill-served historically by armchair strategists. In such matters, India's political leadership would be well advised to listen to, appreciate and respect the advice of its professional military leadership.

Siachen is one of them.

Dr Subhash Kapila is an international relations and strategic affairs analyst, and a consultant, Strategic Affairs, with the South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com

Dr Subhash Kapila
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