Notwithstanding threats by various terrorists outfits operating from Pakistani-occupied Kashmir to step up violence and take it to the same level as it was in the early 1990s, statistics available with the Jammu and Kashmir police show that there has been a marginal decline in the level of violence in 2005.
This is ascribed to the ongoing peace talks between India and Pakistan and the will to resolve all outstanding issues between them, including Kashmir. Is militancy in the state on its last legs?
Speaking to rediff.com, Gopal Sharma, the director general of Jammu and Kashmir police, admitted that there has been a decline of violent incidents in the state, but warns against complacency.
"In the first five months of 2005, there have been 900 incidents of violence. This is because of the difficulty in border crossing, a sharper vigil maintained by the security forces and the state police. No matter what happens at other levels, we are maintaining our vigil and not letting our guard down," Sharma said.
"Even if the terrorists manage to keep the present strike rate, the number of strikes will not go beyond 1,800. In 2004, we recorded 2,500 terrorist strikes. In 1990, at the peak of militancy, terrorists struck as many as 2,900 times at different places in the state and killed a large number of innocent civilians and also security personnel," said another top official of the state police.
The war against terrorism has taken its toll. Between January 1990 and June 15, 2005, the number of security personnel and Jammu and Kashmir police personnel who laid down their lives has crossed the 11,000 mark.
Over 18,960 terrorists have been killed in operations launched against them. The number of civilians killed has gone upto 15,563 of which 10,699 were killed in terrorist attacks and 3,317 in cross firing between the security forces and the terrorists. The rest were killed by hand grenade explosions.
Over 10,000 kg of RDX, 34,000 AK-47s, 5,200 rocket launchers, 5,300 improvised explosive devices, 54,550 hand grenades, 55,000 detonators and over 2 lakh pistols and revolvers, besides hundreds of tonnes of live ammunition were seized during operations against the terrorists.
Mehbooba Mufti, president of the ruling People's Democratic Party, claimed that the terrorists were now getting desperate because they realise they no longer have the same support they once enjoyed from the people of the state.
"I would not say that militancy in Jammu and Kashmir is on its last legs. But it has come down substantially. The terrorists are now realising that their support base with the people of the state is getting eroded day by day," she said.
"The terrorists are becoming desperate and that is why they are attacking schools and children. The attack on a school in Pulwama last week is one such incident. Sometime back, an old man lost two sons during an attack in a market place in the heart of Srinagar," she continued.
"When television channels showed the hapless man crying over the bodies of his two sons, the militants came forward to apologise to him. The peace negotiation has shaken the terrorist organisations badly and they could make some more desperate bids," Mufti warned.
Bilal Gani Lone, a member of the All Party Hurriyat delegation that spent two weeks in Pakistan, did not participate in the talks between the delegation and the United Jihad Council leaders. " I do not talk to such elements," he said.
"Do not think that the militants have given up their diabolical designs. They are there, and watching the developments for the time being. Though I did not participate in the talks, Syed Salahuddin, chief of the Hizbul Mujahideen, I am told, was unhappy with what was going on," he added.
"Statements issued by some leading terrorist organisations that they have not given up their battle against the Indian security forces do indicate that if there is a decline in militant strikes, it could be a temporary affair," warned a top Jammu and Kashmir state police official
"The number of demonstrations against the state police and other security agencies has come down too in the last few months. As far as we are concerned, we have brought the situation under control. Our dear fellow officers and jawans have sacrificed their lives for this. We will not let the evil designs of the terrorists succeed," the police official continued.
Intelligence reports from across the border indicate that Pakistan has not put a lid on militancy or terrorist camps totally as per its commitment to the international community.
"According to our information, there are 87 camps that are still very much active and over 3,000 boys, who are missing from the Valley, are being trained there. These camps have been camouflaged to avoid detection," a senior intelligence officer told rediff.com.
"We have also learnt that over 100 boys who wanted to return to their homes have been put behind bars in various police stations and are being tortured to return to their training camps. Pakistani intelligence is killing whoever they suspect to be an Indian conduit. Many innocent people have been killed in last six months or so," the intelligence officer continued.
Is militancy on its last legs, I asked the officer.
"It is a difficult question to answer. You never know when Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf would do a U-turn. He is using terrorists to achieve his goals and if he finds that he is not getting what he wants, he may unleash another reign of terror," he said.