With less than a week to go before the United States votes, nobody seems sure about who shall win. I have just finished reading eight different opinion polls, and none of them agree on whether it shall be Bush or Kerry taking the oath of office come January 20. (American law stipulates that the candidate who wins the mandate shall take, or renew, the oath of office on the specified date, just as every president has done since Franklin Roosevelt in 1937.)
Since the 'scientific' opinion polls are having such a tough time reading the public mood correctly, the media is turning to a much older way of predicting a winner -- reading the omens. I am not referring to professional astrologers and palmists -- though someone, somewhere has undoubtedly consulted one of those too -- but to precedents from the past.
Will it be the taller candidate who wins? That was generally the case -- except in 1976 (when the 5' 9" Jimmy Carter beat the 6' 2" Gerald Ford, and in 2000 when the 6' 1" Gore ceded ground to a man who is two inches shorter). Rising hemlines in women's skirts indicate a win for the traditionally liberal Democrats over conservative Republicans -- but nobody can find any discernible trend just now. So, it has come down to two infallible measures -- the fashion adopted by American children on Halloween and the success of the Washington Redskins!
Halloween is not, despite the best efforts of greeting card companies, a festival of any import in India. It stems from a belief that witches and other creatures of the night come out in force when the sun sets on October 31 to make whoopee before All Saints Day on November 1. American children celebrate by going around in masks and asking for candy. Some of the most popular masks in election years tend to be those of the two principal candidates. And the man whose face adorns the most masks goes on to win the polls. (Or so say the data from 1980 down.)
And the Washington Redskins? They happen to be the American capital's local football team. Commentators have noted that in every election from 1936 onward the incumbent part has lost the White House if the Redskins lost their last home game. (There are no statistics available for elections before 1936 for the simple reason that there was no team of that name; they were then the 'Boston Braves' and had no predictive powers before the franchise moved to Washington.) The Redskins' record is perfect. In 1948, when every opinion poll was predicting disaster for Harry Truman, Redskin fans thought otherwise
when their team beat the Boston Yanks; Truman pulled off one of the greatest political upsets a few days later.
Unfortunately,
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If you think ideology does not matter, please consider the alternative -- the sheer banality of inertia!