Should one conduct an autopsy before the patient is declared dead? Well, I am about to try! It is still several hours before the Election Commission begins to count the votes in the four states that went to the polls on December 1, but there is general agreement on a couple of matters. Everyone seems to think that the Bharatiya Janata Party shall romp home in Madhya Pradesh, while the Congress (I) shall retain power in Delhi. If this is true, I suspect that rejoicing over the results in the larger state shall mean a loss of introspection in the Bharatiya Janata Party over the loss in Delhi. And this could be a mistake...
Delhi is certainly the smallest by far of the four provinces which elected assemblies on December 1. (Mizoram is far smaller of course.) It sends only seven members to the Lok Sabha. But Delhi could also be giving some pointers to the trends in the future.
Back when I was in school, we were taught that India lives in her villages, with a 80:20 ratio in favour of rural areas over towns and cities. By the time my children were of schoolgoing age that ratio had shifted to 70:30. Today, I think it is closer to 60:40. If this trend continues and history assures us that it is a common feature seen in every country as it moves from 'developing' to 'developed' status, urban India shall outweigh the countryside halfway through this century. (If not sooner!)
On the face of it, this should please the Bharatiya Janata Party as it is widely supposed to be a party with stronger roots in urban areas. Delhi, particularly, is supposed to be a stronghold of the organisation, its roots running back to the old Jan Sangh days. It should, therefore, be a matter of special concern if the party loses two successive contests for the Delhi Vidhan Sabha. And that too not by any small margins!
Of course, it is true that Delhi has also voted by equally overwhelming margins in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the Lok Sabha polls. But that, I fear, is a tribute to the central leadership of the party, and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee above all. If the party is serious about winning back Delhi it should try and examine just what went wrong.
In my opinion, the Bharatiya Janata Party lost power in 1998 because it chose to commit suicide. The squabbling between senior leaders of the Delhi