The Real Reason Why Movies Are Flopping

The consistently heavy downpour of films, shows, events, videos and whatnot is causing economic disruption.

Every year, there are a few months when the death knell of the film business is sounded.

The first six months of this year have been such a period. But just as media reports were talking of the industry's trauma, along came Aditya Sarpotdar's Munjya and Nag Ashwin's Kalki 2898 AD. They have broken the dry spell with good box office performances. Movies are back in business.

Of the several reasons for the somewhat dull first half, the most important is windows.

India, the world's largest film-making country, released close to 1,800 films in 2023.

The number ranges from 1,700 to 1,900 in most years, with the exception of the pandemic years.

There are, however, only 52 weekends in a year.

How many of these 1,800 films can get a good weekend to release, find their audience, and make money?

Of the 52 weekends, take a few out for big events such as cricket matches, elections, exams or vacations. That leaves 40 weekends.

Divide the 1,800 films released in 2023 by the estimated 40 weeks available -- that is 45 films a week being released.

Note that this is across languages. That means some of these films may be just for the Tamil Nadu or Maharashtra or Punjab markets.

That is still a lot of films fighting for a single, decent window to release in.

Incidentally, Hollywood, the most developed market, averages fewer films at 500-600 a year, but faces the same issues.

To this rush for a good weekend in 2024, add a booming market for live events with Ed Sheeran, Lollapalooza, Vir Das and a host of other performances scheduled across the country, all on weekends.

Add an Indian Premier League with some great cricket over 10 weeks and a general election that went on for over seven weeks. It probably left less than 30 weekends for release in many markets in India this year.

This is not just about films.

The question of windows is something the entire Rs 2.3 trillion media and entertainment business needs to grapple with.

At Rs 19,700 crore (Rs 197 billion) in total revenue (including box office, streaming and TV), film is just about 8.5 per cent of the total.

But it illustrates the point -- the consistently heavy downpour of films, shows, events, videos and whatnot is causing economic disruption too.

The question of a good release window for 'a' film is pivotal if you want to address the issue of discoverability.

Only if a film opens on a reasonably open weekend, does it have a chance of success, monetary and critical.

If something is not seen or heard, it has little chance of making money. This is a challenge faced by musicians, actors, and writers -- even as their work multiplies, their incomes don't.

Then there is the question of a streamlined release calendar.

If films are spaced such that they release at regular intervals through the year, the theatres and the whole ecosystem remains monetarily hydrated.

Through April and May, several films, including Kalki, were postponed to avoid clashing with the IPL and elections.

This left theatres with very little to screen.

To this crowding around a window to release or showcase a film, add another set of windows. The time gap between a film's release theatrically and its release on other formats (TV, OTT) -- also called a 'window'.

At roughly two-thirds of the total revenue that any film makes, theatrical releases are the lifeblood of the film business. They are also the single most important factor in determining its price for streaming or television. A film that doesn't do well at the theatres, doesn't get a good price.

In India, the window between theatrical and streaming is eight weeks and between theatrical and television is 12.

Since the audience knows this, it is indifferent about missing smaller, non-spectacle films in the theatre. This does not give slow-burners such as 12th Fail or Laapata Ladies time to receive their due.

Vidhu Vinod Chopra's 12th Fail tells the heart-warming, true story of Manoj Kumar Sharma's journey from Chambal to Gwalior to Delhi, the soul-crushing poverty he deals with while attempting the various exams for Indian Police Service.

It was a surprise hit in 2023 getting Rs 70 crore (Rs 700 million) in just theatrical collections. Some of the best minds in the business reckon if it had not released on OTT, even while it was running in the theatres, it would have crossed Rs 120 to Rs 130 crore (Rs 1.2 million to Rs 1.3 billion) in gross collection at the box office.

However, many of the streaming deals are made while a film is under production as the maker needs working capital. Therefore, those release dates are contractual.

Again this is not just about films.

The democratisation of the Internet and social media have brought is now playing out in full glory.

There is a deluge of shows, films, and videos across the world. We are floating in a sea of 'content' and have only 24 hours to see it.

Where in this deluge is the right opportunity to drop a video on YouTube or a high-cost show or film on streaming?

Industry insiders already talk of streaming platforms either postponing or advancing the release of a show or a film to catch a less crowded week.

Almost makes you long for the days when a film was celebrated only upon reaching its silver jubilee -- that is, when it crossed 25 weeks of continuous screening in theatres -- and then fell out of sight until you saw it on Doordarshan.