The markets gave a thumbs-up to India's joining the elite nuclear club with the benchmark Sensex notching up a gain of over 460 points but fell short of the psychological 15,000 level by a whisker on Monday.
But the euphoria was short lived. Mirroring weakness in other Asian markets, the Sensex opened on Tuesday with a negative gap of 93 points, and ended the day with a loss of 44 points.
Wednesday, too, the Sensex opened in the red.
In such volatile times, what strategy should you adopt? Which stocks to buy, sell and hold?
In an hour-long chat on rediff.com on Wednesday, market expert Pranav Sanghavi, replied to many such readers' queries. Here is the transcript:
PRANAV SANGHAVI says, Good afternoon everyone. Regret the delay in logging on. Let's begin.
riyas asked, Hi pranav, Is Guj.MDC good to buy at CMP?. Is Guj.MDC is better than Guj NRE coke? Thanks
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, at 2008-09-10 15:50:41Right now all the metal stocks are facing some resistance. I would only look at the stock if you can hold for over 6 months. It may still fall further as the LME prices are down. I would wiat for further fall and a bit of stability.
lob asked, I want to buy L&T and Bhel at current levels but they have already appreciated. Guide me. Whether to buy L&T now or after bonus ? I have NTPC 100 shares @ 212. Hold or book loss ?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, L&T & BHEL have been strong performers and look to do so in the future as well. But if you are planning to buy on the back of th Nuclear Deal then you should think again. As it will take considerable time for the deal to materially benefit the stocks. But if you are buying on its current strngths then you could surely look at them. Buy when there is a minor correction. Post bonus you may see a slight dip in prices for a very short while after which it should rise back steadily.
Afrose asked, Hi Pranav, Why the Gujarat NRE coke share is falling drastically. Is there any bad news for the company?. I bought 30 shares at 106. did they announce record date for the bonus? Thanks a lot
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, There is no bad news specifically for the stock but most of its peer group are falling on a daily basis. They announced the Bonus issue on July 18, 2008. I don't think they have announced the record date.
sada asked, I have indiabulls bought at RS.350 , ICICI bank at RS.800, Reliance Power bought in IPO -47 shares Please tell me what to keep and what to sell. I can wait for 6 months
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, ICICI Bank could surely be held with a 1 year outlook. Finally after a very long time we have had not one but two back to back weeks of inflation falling, albiet by just decimals. But atleast the raging upward move has stagnated for the time being. Indiabulls secuity may be affected by the downturn in the markets so I would wait for it's September end results before taking a call on the stock.
dfs asked, what is your view on tata steel, hindalco, chennai petroleum
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Tata Steel in the short term looks to remain weak. But over a longer term period one could look at the stock on corrections. Same goes with Hindalco. It is a long term play. In the short term there could be weakness.
maan asked, Hi Pranav,I want to Buy ESSAR OIL,IDFC,NTPC,GUJRAT NRECOKE,GVK POWER AND INFRASTRUCTURE,POWERGRID,HINDALCO,JP ASSOCIATES WITH A LONG TERM VIEW OF 3-5YRS.I ALREADY HOLD THESE STOCKS IN MY PORTFOLIO AND WANT TO ADD UP.I AM ALSO INTERSTED IN RNRL AND RPL.SHOULD I BUY THESE STOCKS AS WELL AND HOLD THEM FOR A PERIOD OF 5YRS.PLS ADVICE.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, All the stocks that you have mentioned couls surely be held with a long term outlook barring may be a JP Associates. I would not look at RNRL till the outcome of its court battle with RIL. And RPL again could be bought with a long term view. As the stock my see some appreciation post the commissioning of it's refinery and a couple of quarterly results.
Mittal asked, Hi.. Pranav, Good afternoon.I wanna know which script benefitial for 6month investment planning. please suggest me.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, With the markets being in a very volatile and news driven phase, I would strongly recommend playing safe and betting on index heavy stocks like RIL, SBI etc. But in the short term the markets could move either ways and therfore one should buy on corrections.
jprilp asked, Hi Pranav! Can I purchase HDIL, Sterlite industries, Gujarat NRE Coke at current levels?.Why these share prices are falling dramatically?.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Sterlite should be looked witha 2 year oulook. In the short term it may not outperform. Guj NRE could be bought with the idea of getting the bonus shares but after the price stabilizes as it has been falling daily.
Gauri joshi asked, hi! i have jk lakshmi cement 100 shares, sitting with a loss of 56% ,need your opinion. also is it wise to invest in IDFC at these levels?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You will have to wait for a long time for JK cement to come into profits. I have liked IDFC over the past 2 to 3 years. At these levels I find it attractive even though there seems to be a perception that the high interest costs and a slowdown in infrastructure spend may affect IDFC's performance.
kutty asked, I have 20 bajaj holding and investment shares at 680. Shall i hold or sell?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think it is a god stock to hold with a 6 to 12 month outlook at least.
we asked, I have 30 GMR Infra @ 155, 100 naga fertilizers @49, 15 Rpower brought in IPO, and 50 Tata tele @ 39. i also have MF Reliance Vision taken for 10000/- I have also invested 30k in ICICI life time gold ULIP. In all the cases i am facing loss. tell me what to do.. Also tell me which stocks i can buy at this point of time in market
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, GMR again you will have to hold for a long time to see your prices. Nagarjuna and Tata Tele could surely be held as the current spate of news are in favor of both the stocks. Fertilizer in general and Tata Tele due to talks of its stake sale.
bobby asked, I purchased lokesh @ 54 is it good
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I don't follow the stock so will not be able to help you.
tinku asked, how much time market will take to recover
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I still see pain for another 6 to 9 weeks.
tinku asked, how much time market will take to recover
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I meant months in my previous reply sorry.
rk asked, how u see nifty closing this week
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I don't know how it will close tomorrow let alone at the end of the week. One cannot preict accurately how a market will move. Today the storm could hit Gulf of Mexico and oil production could be hampered and the price of Oil may shoot up. Altough about over 60% of Oil production in GoM has already been suspended. Various factors are affecting the markets at any given time either positively or negatively.
jan asked, wich stocks to buy with sensex at 15000 level
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, At the current juncture I would not venture in to buying. I would wait for lower levels.
shankygaddar asked, Hi, what r ur views abt Reliance Ind. Infrastructure, India Infoline 50 @135, sesagoa 50@174??? What to do now???
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, RIL and Sesa Goa can surely be held with a long term outlook. You will see your prices.
Baladithya asked, Hi this is Baladithya I have a query about Southern Ispat. I am having 500 South ISPAT @28 RS. No the price is 12, how long i need to hold. Please suggest me.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I don't follow that stock but from what I gather it will be a long wait for you.
PG asked, How does Guj NRE, Ashapura Minechem & Jindal Drilling, Aban, GMR, RPL, Hind rectifier & Rain COmmodities look- with 3 years perspective
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could hold most of the stocks that you mention barring maybe a Rain Comm &
Ashapura.
Vivek asked, what are today's good stocks to buy & hold...
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You have to look at the frontline index stocks like RIL, L&T, SBI etc. for various reasons. One, they are the ones who can wear out the tough times the economy is facing, two they have a history of performance and growth, three they are pretty liquid and you won't get stuck with the stock like many B2 and mid-cap stocks.
navin asked, can i buy asian paints stock now
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, If you are a long term investor then you could look at it with a 1 year outlook.
Sujay asked, Hello Pranav. I hold 2000 Punj Lloyd @ 308. what is the target by end of month
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I am not a technical analyst and therefore cannot give you price targets. But there has been some recovery in the stocks but will take a long time to see higher levels.
bha asked, i have cinemax at 94 ,what to do
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Hold on.
Suresh asked, I have 1000 shares of Hotel Leela venture, should I hold or exit
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would surely hold on.
sanjay asked, can u say more about indai foils
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, MALCO holds a large stake and it is a part of the Sterlite Group. I would surely hold it with a long term perspective.
SANDIP asked, I am holding 10 areva bought at Rs1620. I want to know regarding future of the share
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Over the next 1 to 2 years the stock may benefit from the Nuclear deal that India has signed as Areva is a leading supplier to Nuclear power plants worldwide.
shankygaddar asked, also i have adlabs 100@363, bajaj holding 100 @333. what to do pls tell, either book profit or stay calm!!!!
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would continue to hold on to both if I was a long term investor. If I am a short term investor then I would book profits and wait for markets to fall to re enter.
rajdeep asked, should i buy crompton greaves
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You can surely look at the stock but on dips and correction. Also with a 6 to 12 month outlook.
narendra asked, what is your say on sterlite ind,sesa goa, idfc,orbit corporation, can we buy for 1 year prospective.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Yes you could surely look at these stocks with that time frame.
urs_buddy7 asked, Ur views on MoserBaer for long term??
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I like Moser Baer stock and I would hold it for the long term. Its into computer hardware and ancilliaries. It's exports also will beneft in the short term with the higher Dollar.
sahoo asked, How about DLFLIM ? I am holding around 200 at IPO price, When Can I make a safe exit with profit
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, DLF maynot outperform in the short term. If you look at the stock it would be for over 1 year. In he short term the hgh interest rates and slowdown in the real estate sector will affect it negatively. But if there is any news of lowerin the interest rates the real estate stocks could benefit.
ajaymisri asked, i have 10 share of reliance comm purcahsed at 444. Now it is 403 should i hold or exit also pls. tell me which stocks to buy as a long term investment with a time horizon of 6-7 yrs
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think you could hold for the short term and if there is a rally you could book partial profits.
rasika asked, Hi Pranav I have tried to build my portfolio with 4-5 years perspective. I am holding the scripted which are averaged Pl guide me which scripts I should accumulate & which to exit.. As on date I am incurring a loss of app 20 % I have L&t @3250, Bhel @1628 , Punj @270, dlf@525 , RPL @160 , rcom @590, , unitech @240,infy@1640, 3i info @110 ,rpower@185, suzlon @310 ,NTPC @180 , powr grid @ 85 union bank @ 165 , union bank @ 65.Thanks
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think most of the stocks you have chosen are good bets for the long term. In the short term you may see capital depreciation due to volatile markets but if youhave bought them with a 5 year perspective, I am pretty confident you will see decent returns on most of the stocks you mention.
pp asked, Where u find mkt by end of year .And whats ur view on India bulls realestate and financial and STC.What results sesa goa can give.Thanks
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Indiabulls real estate is a long term play. One has to look at it with a 2 to 3 year outlook as a lot of it's large projects will get delivered then. STC could be looked at with a 1 year outlook. I expect Sesa to give stellar result and I would surely hold on to the stock.
spancoeuro asked, what is the prospects of IFCI, Ispat Inds and Chambal Fertilizer in next one year
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, All the stocks you mention are high volume F&O stocks. They are trader friendly and pretty volatile. In the short term I don't think you will ee great upside in the stocks. Chambal benefitted due to the news on Fertilizer subsidy over the past few sessions.
JAMAL asked, WHAT IS THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE OF INFRASTRUCTURE,CAPITAL GOODS AND BANKING STOCKS SAY FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think there seems to be a slowdown that will affect theInfra sn the Real Estate Segments. Banking also will get affected as with Inflation above 12%, RBI will not be able to decrease the interest rates. Therefore quality borrowing will get affected and thereby the banks performance. Capital Goods I think is the nly sector who could turn up decent results over this time frame.
raj30 asked, i have tisco @700 and the quantity is 400 what should i do?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You will have to hold on. The metal commodities are cyclical and steel especially is a long term play for our country due to the infrastructure spend and growth planned by our government.
jitu asked, what level sesa goa should be buy at? also give me entry point for GMDC
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, One could srely look at Sesa at current levels with a 1 year outlook. One should buy in parts on every dip from here.
Amish asked, I have 300 NTP at price of 254 rs. What should i do
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You will have to wait for some time to see a decent profit. But on NTPC you will surley see profit in the long term. I would surley hold on.
jitu asked, what is the right price of cairn india
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, With the Oil Prices cooling off Cairn will also correct. But you could look at it with a 6 month outlook and book profits if Oil prices rally for any reason over that time frame.
Guna asked, can i hold sintex industries ?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Yes you could.
Prahlad asked, I am a day Trader, but for last couple of weeks I lost more due to market volatility, so, I want to know how to catch the trend of the market after opening low or high.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, The problem with the markets are that we are seeing huge upswings and downswings on alternate days thereby creating a high risk scenario for day traders. We sometimes see jumps of 500 points and the very next day falls of 500 points. So one should avoid taking day trading positions in such high volatility.
prasad asked, what is the future of nagarjuna fertilizers? should i hold or sell
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, With the fertilizer sector getting subsidy and other benefits from the government, one could surely hold on to Nagarjuna Fert.
Guna asked, what about sugar stocks? will they ever see a rise in their price?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, As I had said about 5 t 6 months back I don't see the sugar stocks goin north anytime soon. They will remain rangebound at best based on news flows either negative or positive.
PRANAV SANGHAVI says, Well it's time for me to leave. Bye for now.