Where is the stock market going? Will they rise further? Or will they crash again? What should a small investor do in such a scenario? Should he hold on to his stocks or sell them? Should he buy stocks now or stay away from the market?
Despite weak global cues continuing for some time, Indian stocks were in great demand, especially auto, pharma, IT and metals stocks. On July 6, this lifted the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark 30-share Sensex past the magical 15,000-mark.
The unprecedented Bull Run started on May 6, 2003 when the Sensex was at 3,001.21 level. In took just 67 trading sessions to cross the 4,000-mark and touch 4,026.27 points on August 19, 2003.
Did you make profits while the Sensex scaled dizzying heights last Friday? How do you plan to consolidate your gains? What should your investment strategy be now? Should you invest more in the market? Should you consider selling a few stocks? What would be the best stocks to buy, sell or hold at this juncture?
In an hour-long chat on
rediff.com, stock market expert
Pranav Sanghavi, director, Jitendra Harjivandas Securities (P) Ltd, cleared readers' doubts
. Here is the transcript:
PRANAV SANGHAVI says, Good afternoon everyone. Welcome to the chat. Let's begin.
shabahat asked, nifty will touch 4100 first or 4500 first?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, at 2007-08-14 11:59:01Thats a tough one to call but I think there more chances of markets consolidating than crashing or rather correcting sharply.
rahul asked, what is your opinion about investing in portfolio management upto Rs 5 Lacs
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, If you do not have the time to devote to stock trading and researching the stocks to invest into, I think it is a prudent option to go through a market professional. You should be carefull in picking a Portfolio Manager. he should be SEBI registered and also have a decent history of performance.
Abhinav asked, Should I buy RPL ,since I am running 50 stocks of RPL
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think RPL should steadily rise and one could look at around 50% CAGR growth int he stock over teh next two years. The days the markets are down sharply you could buy in parts.
rvcat asked, Hi Pranav- Three shares you will recommend for a five year investment horizon.Regards
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Hi RVCAT, I would look at SBI, L&T and TCS.
suparna asked, when I should buy IFCI
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, When it corrects. Just last week it touched Rs. 52 levels when the markets were correcting sharply. But you will have to hold it atleast upto March 2008 for meaningfull returns.
SGK asked, Hi Pranav, here is my porfolio. How do you rate it. What is future these stocks? 1.DLF 2.INFOSYS 3.NTPC 4.ONGC 5.RELICOMM 6.SBI 7.WIPRO
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think all are fundamentally strong stocks. If you plan to hold them with a 2 to 3 year time horizon I think you will beat the markets.
rvcat asked, Pranav your call on rupee appreciation-wher do you see rupee versus US dollar at the end of the year.tHANKS.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, RBI was finding it increasingly difficult to hold the Dollar above the Rs. 40 mark. With this sub rpime worries and talks of FII pulling out funds the pressure on them has eased marginally as a few FIIs are converting Ruppees to Dollars for repatriation. We have had a sale figure of around US$ 1 billion in the markets till date this month already. But in the longer term Dollar inflow into the country will not stem and will surely put pressure to break the Rs. 40 mark.
a asked, what is the position of arvind mills should it be hold
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think the textile sector has underperformed the markets and looks to continue to do so.
murugeshan asked, I likely to invest in stock market..for my children study (long term ie., 10-15 years) in SIP manner. Suggest some of best stock for the same.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You would rather invest in a large cap diversified Mutual Fund offering the SIP scheme rather than stocks directly. DSP Tiger, HDFC Growth, Templeton Diversified are just a few of the funds on offer.
manu asked, I want to buy PUNJLLOYD..please let me know the future of this stock
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think it has decent potential in the coming years. After DLF and Unitech Punj is poised to make the most of the real estate and infrastructure boom being witnessed by our country. They have delivered strong results and look to continue doing so.
bala asked, i have 50 share of suntv@436,105 dishtv@131,75 Rajtv @355 can u gide me either toohold ?vishaexp1075@3.10 and ramanews 100shares@38 please guide me k.bala
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think SuN and Raj are niche channels and are doing well in their niche regions. They look to continue their good performance. I would get out of Vishal Exports and Rama Newsprint.
nil asked, dear sir pls give me advise on these stock,SURYACHAKRYA POWER,PIRAMID RETAIL,IFCI,UB ENGG,HIMACHAL FUT,MANGLORE CHEMICAL,IKFSO TECHNO, THANKS,REGDS/ NIL
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could surely hold on to Pyramid Retail as they have some decent expansion plans on the cards, also IFCI with its impending stake sale. UB Engineering looks to be a turnaround story and the stock has already moved from Rs. 40 levels to its current Rs. 90 levels. I would book some profits and wait for the next few quarterly results before investing again.
satish asked, can i invest now ,,if yes in which shares
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Markets were in a very volatile state. They may remain to be that way for a while till the sub prime worries die down completely. But on sharp correctional days you could surely buy the quality stocks in parts.
teja asked, Hello Pranav Sanghavi, Welcome to this chat session!
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Hi Teja, thank you and welcome to you too.
nil asked, WHAT YOU THINK OF LNG PETRONET STOCK
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think it should grow at a 20 to 25% annual basis based on its past performance.
Dinesh asked, Hi Pranav What are the prospects of RelCom. and IFCI. Can i buy more at current levels
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Hi Dinesh, yes you could look at both and acquire them at every dips with atleast a 6 month to 12 month outlook.
a asked, what is the target of HLL ( HUL) and where it should be exited
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, HUL has announced a buy back up to a price of Rs. 230. This will come into play once the shareholders approve of the scheme. It shows the company is trying to prop up its price and show fiath in itself. I would buy below Rs. 200 levels and exit probably around Rs. 215 levels for the short term.
karan asked, hi pranav, as per your suggestion i have downloaded the relevant study material from the nse website, might not be able to write the exam in near future. please tell me whether thats sufficient to learn in fundamental analysis or i need some books too?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Hi Karan, you could get some books too but I would rather that you attend some of the courses held by the training institutes of the exchanges. They will help you in both theoretically and practically understanding the markets.
sanjayP asked, What is the future of Sugar stocks
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, They look to remain underperformers till such time the Government comes out with further SOPS for them.
Phoneix asked, Ur inputs on HCL Tech, GMR Infra
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, HCL has given decent results. Although it has over Rs. 200 crores as forex gains in its bottomline. But somehow HCL has always been valued at much lower multiples as compared to its peers. GMR is a sure hold as it has bagged large projects and should deliver good performance over the next 2 to 3 years.
rg asked, i have 3000 shares of facor alloy purchased @ rs 6 nearly 1.5 years ago.whats your opinion abt it ( after i purchased it went down to rs1 but now its freezing daily & presently trading at rs 5)
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would suggest you exit and divert your investment into a quality stock.
PIYUSH asked, ur views on Walchandnagar industries...wat d future??
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, They have bagged a few infrastructure projects and will take time in delivering those projects. Also their capability of delivering large projects on time is also an issue. I would much rather go with a larger player from its peers.
sanjub asked, I have 3000 shares of HFCL since 3 yrs this stock is not doing well should I hold or sell them ?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Exit and switch to a growth stock in the telecom stocks like RCom or Idea.
APPASO asked, WHat is the fate of rnrl?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, It has been rising steadily over the past few months. I would hold on.
Anurag asked, I have 1 lot of TCS and 5 lots of suzlon in Futures segment. Tell me what to do.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Book profits on TCS and hold on to Suzlon.
Sp asked, Pranav,what's your call on Wockhardt,Pitti laminations & geodesic Infosystems ?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think Wockhardt is a decent midcap player in the pharma stocks. Strong fundamentals and can be held. I would exit Pittie Laminations.
Geodesic has delivered decent results but I would rather go with a stronger player in the tech segment.
APPASO asked, what iwill be the fate of dlf?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think DLF is poised to give an EPS of around Rs. 40 for FY08. It will only try and better that performance in FY09. So I would recommend a hold surely.
Purvi asked, Hello Sir, I am purvi from chennai, I am regular investor in stocks, I like to know the current market situation? is market in correction phase or it is effect of US market(global Market)?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, A correction was due for our markets. The global factors have definately affected our markets and therefore the sharp corrections. Once the sub prime lending worries are out of the way we should move gradually upwards post a consolidation phase.
vandana asked, Hi Pranav, what about Bharat Forge and Greaves Cotton.Im along term investor and can hold fro 5 years
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Bharat Forge surprisingly has underperformed over the last few quarters. If you can hold for 5 years then you could hold both the stocks.
PoorRetailer asked, Do ITC and Cipla have good returns in medium term?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, ITC should surely be held. Cipla on the other hand one should wait and watch the next few quarters before investing.
JIGNESH asked, I HAVE 300 SHARES OF IDBI @124/- CAN I SELL OR HOLD?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, IDBI I think is under a rerating process. The investments that IDBI holds is seem to have appreciated and is being valued nearly at around Rs. 40 per share. It does have some NPA issues but with the value of its investments rising IDBI does make a good bet for the next 6 to 12 months.
kasim asked, i have puchased OMAXE at 263, 100 shartes, CMP 249, hold it or sell it if it crosses 263?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think you could hold it. Unfortuantely the company did not price the share for the IPO favoring the investors therefore in the short term you may not have a huge upside.
LABRINTHER asked, CAN I BUY BAHRTI NOW
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You can on every dip or a major correction with a 12 month outlook.
susantaguru asked, HI, I purchased the following stocks recently. Can you please take a look and suggest the best: Tech Mahindra 1205 TCS 1082 JP Associates 791 Reliance Comm 518 Crompton Greaves 265
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, TCS and Tech Mahindra are only underperforming due to the rising Rupee. Both of them have delivered fantastic results and I am bullish on them over a longer term. From the other three I would surely hold RComm as it is one of the leading players along with Bharti in the telecome segment which is one of the fastest growing in the world scenario.
nidhi asked, i have 10000 shares of federal bank, shall i wait for sell them off
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could hold on. I am bullish on the banks.
Sundar asked, Hi, I Bought BlueDart Express scrip at 760. Now it is trading at 667. what should I do ?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You would have to hold as you got in probably prior to the correction that we witnessed. But I think you will see your price in the near future.
aman asked, hi pranav, what is the future of IT and Pharma stocks, are they a good buy now.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, IT could be looked at with a contrarian approach albeit for a long term. As in the short term the Rupee does not look to depreciate against the Dollar in a hurry. Pharma one has to be stock specific.
joshi asked, what is the future of ITC? Even though many say it will go up, the market does not seem to support this counter. It fluctuates between -5 to +5 % only..
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Yes ITC has been range bound for the longest of times. But they have large expansion plans in their non-cigarette businesses. Like they are accumalating a large cash kitty of over Rs. 10,000 crores for investments into Hotels amongst other plans. I think they should surely give better returns in the times to come.
kasim asked, how about DLF share? will it touch 700 soon? expecting to sell the share if it touches 700. Shall i hold it or sell it?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, If DLF delivers a Rs. 40 EPS for FY08 as it has been estimated then a rpice of Rs. 700 could easily be achieved as some of the other real estate stocks enjoy PE ratios of 20 times their EPS. I would surely hold DLF.
zakir asked, Sir, It is appearing that high cap scrips are already on peak. Could your suggest few midcap and small which are having lot of room for appreciations as per you research/study. with regards, zakir cameraperson UGC
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I would look at stocks like NTPC, IDFC, UB Holdings, IFCI, IDBI, RNRL, RPL amongst others.
vijay asked, Hi,I am a short term investor. Can you suggest some good stocks to buy in banking/capital goods sector.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could look at SBI, ICICI, HDFC, L&T, BHEL etc.
prasd asked, i have bought gayatri projects @ 290, please advice what is the target for next 2/3 months ? also bought what is target for educomp@
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I don't follow Gayatri Projects and Educomp has comepletely outperformed the markets and its peers. I think it is a bit overpriced but its provig most people wrong with its continued price rises. Also, their earnings model is not dependant on foreign business therefore it is not affected by the Dollar fluctuations.
vinod asked, I am holding suryachakra power at a price of 22. currently it is clocking at 19.6. what is your recommendation about the stock?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Switch to a NTPC or REL.
codes asked, Hi, what is best entry level for SBI, L&T and BHEL?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Definately at times of correction one could buy SBI around 1500 to 1600 levels, L&T around the 2350 to 2400 levels, and BHEL you could look at even at current levels.
aman asked, hi pranav, what is the future of infrastructure stocks.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think the growth that our country is witnessing is unprecidented. And our weak infrastructure will have to play catch up with this growth our country is witnessing. Therefore I think the infrastructure segment will outperform the markets over the next 4 to 5 year term.
ashish kumar upadhyay asked, what about hindalco share
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Hindalco is a metal stock with a huge acquisition on its head much like Tisco. So in the short term it may underperform but if you are looking at a 3 to 5 year term it should give decent returns.
francis asked, What do you think of Mysore cements & Hindustan constructions?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think Mysore Cements could be looked at as I think the Cement sector will perofrm exceedingly well due to the huge demand supply gap. I don't see the cement price drop in the future. HCC also has some infrastructure projects on hand and is also developing a mini township near Pune. These should bear results in FY 08 and FY09. So you could hold.
dumpty asked, with stregthening ruppes and weakening IT industry, do indian economy will move as fast as it has been in last few years???
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, I think the INdian economy is poised to grow at over 8.5% and looks to continue for atleast another 4 to 5 years.
krishna asked, How do you look at SPICE JET(MODLUF)stocks ?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Aviation is a tricky industry. But there were rumors that Kingfisher was looking at a stake then some foreign player. But till the company comes out with some concrete news it may not outperform.
ram asked, whts the take on Dalmia Cement and Birla Corp
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, Birla Corp looks a better bet.
prem asked, voltas to buy or exit.
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You could look at Voltas as a buy. IT has decent order backlog and looks to appreciate over the next couple of years.
Ramkishan asked, Hi Pranav, I am holding 500 shares of IFCI bought at 65 Rs/Share, shall I hold on?
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, You have got in at near the higher price levels. But you could hold on for 6 months to see a profit.
subrata asked, Why such type of uncertainty in money market when Indian economy is growing at a considerable rate? How long the present scenario may continue? please advise
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, The present volatile scenario is more due to foreign markets rather than local fundamentals. I would say that in the short term the markets may remain volatile and consolidate before again rising higher.
iseeac asked, How much effect the US economic changes will be there on Indian Market
PRANAV SANGHAVI answers, US is a large market and major changes in their economy affects most emerging markets which are dependant on US economy. We are not completely excluded either. But the US economy is not in a doom phase as if you study the consumer spending figures they have gone up in July and even in June they didnt fall as low as analysts had predicted. Also, our economy is also growing due to huge local demand too.
PRANAV SANGHAVI says, Well it has been great chatting with you all. Happy Independence Day in advance to all of you. Bye.
Chat with Pranav every week!