India's non-woven and technical textile industry would grow exponentially from 2035 with the rising income levels, according to an expert in the field.
With the GDP of India predicted to be in between 8-9 per cent this year, the over 300 million middle class population was set to spearhead the growth of the non-woven and technical textile industry, Dr Ramkumar Seshadri, Texas Tech University, said in an analysis.
As India's economy was expected to exceed that of Europe and Japan by 2030 and of the United States by 2045, such a growth was possible because of the increase in household incomes and the predicted growth in agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors, he said in the analysis presented at a recent conference in Coimbatore.
The consumer spending level was growing over 5 per cent per annum, which resulted in the ongoing growth of organised retail sectors, Ramkumar said.
Stating that the economy received a boost due to the growing middle class, young and educated population, Ramkumar said that these were the vital factors for the growth of non-woven and technical textile industry in the country.
A major support scheme of National Technology Mission for technical textiles as well as the growth in the middle class population was expected to change the nature of technical textile industry in the next five to 10 years, he said.
India's per capita consumption of non-wovens and technical textiles would double than that of the US, when the country reached a per capita GDP of $45,028, which was the current per capita GDP of America, Ramkumar said.
Interestingly, at this per capita GDP level, the consumption by the US was far less than what India would be achieve. An important forecast was that in the next two decades, the rate of growth of non-woven and technical industry would be far ahead than what it was in the US and Europe during the last three decades, during which the industry in the Western hemisphere grew and matured, he said.
The current per capita consumption of non-wovens in India was less than 100 grams, compared to around three to 3.5 kg in developed markets such as the US and western Europe, he said.
As was evident from the growth of the non-woven industry in developed market, it had taken nearly four decades to cross the threshold level of three kg per capita consumption.
As per the World bank's income estimates, per capita GDP of the US and India were $45,817 and $946.1, respectively. At this per capita income level, India's per capita consumption of non-woven was 80 gms and the annual economic growth rate of US and India 4.6 per cent and 13.27 per cent respectively, the analysis said.
The nascent Indian non-woven industry would grow steadily in the next two decades, reaching the threshold of consumption level of three kg in 2030, while US industry would grow only slowly at the rate of around five per cent beyond the threshold level, Ramkumar, in his analysis, said.
The phenomenal growth of the Indian industry from the embryonic stage--2007-- through its infancy (2010-2030) and then through the developed stage (2030 and beyond) and per capita income level for 2005-2050 plotted against non-woven consumption indicated tremendous growth with a phase change in 2030 enabling exponential growth from this stage, he said.
The growing middle class population and rise in income levels of half of India'population were the major drivers for the growth of Indian non-woven and technical textile industry. Considering the advantage, India's technical textile industry would be worth $12-15 billion by 2012, which would be 10 per cent of the global value, the analysis said.
The period between 2010 and 2030 would be crucial for the technical textile sector and India would provide ample opportunities for both International and domestic players with a growth rate of 15 per cent per annum.
"India is shining and is certainly a technical textile playing field to be in for the next three decades," Ramkumar predicted.