ADB moots 2 Indo-Pak pipelines

India and Pakistan may require more than two pipeline schemes for importing gas from countries like Iran, Turkmenistan, Qatar and Oman, as the demand in the two South Asian nations is slated to increase to 50 billion cubic metres in the long term, a senior ADB official said.

"The $7 billion scheme to pipe natural gas from Iran to Pakistan and India is gaining momentum," Dan Millison, senior energy specialist in the Asian Development Bank, said adding that with long term gas demand from India and Pakistan estimated at 50 BCM a year, there is a need for more pipelines.

Citing the recently released reserves information from Turkmenistan, he said the proposed $3.3 billion pipeline project to carry gas from Turkmenistan to India and Pakistan would be lower than expected.

India already imports gas and demand will soar in the next decade, the ADB official said, adding Pakistan, with its own reserves declining, is expected to begin importing gas after 2008.

"Projected demand in South Asia is so strong that there may be a need for a third pipeline from Qatar or Oman," he said while predicting that gas from Turkmenistan to the South Asian nations would be lower than expected.

Turkmenistan's Daulatabad gas field has gross reserves of 1.4 trillion cubic metres of gas, but production forecasts are lower than expected, causing analysts to doubt that it can meet the proposed target of piping 30 billion cubic metres of gas a year to South Asia.

The reserves information shows that Turkmenistan could supply enough gas for the first few years but then production is predicted to decline instead of increasing. They will need to find gas from other fields to meet pipeline design targets," Millison said.

ADB has been brokering the 1,700 km pipeline project since 2002, promoting it as a win-win example of regional cooperation - a pioneering effort to link gas-rich Central Asia with energy-deficient South Asia through Afghanistan.