A slowdown in the global economy and the rupee appreciation are expected to hit India Inc's job recruitment plans as the country's employment outlook dipped by six points to 74 points in the April-June 2008 quarter.
The business outlook dropped by 9 per cent to 70 points, according to staffing agency TeamLease Services' quarterly Employment Outlook Report.
<b>War of indices</b><br>
Other than a substantial rise in the employment outlook index of infrastructure (at 90 points) and telecom (at 93 points), there has been a decrease in the IT-enabled services (ITeS) index at 76 points and the manufacturing and engineering index (at 63 points).
The report also compares indicators in the last three quarters and points out to a gradual increase in the employment outlook index points of the telecom sector and a decrease in the index points of the IT and manufacturing and engineering sectors.
The employment index is computed as the difference in the proportion of respondents who report an increase in hiring needs and those who report a decline in hiring needs over the next three months.
The business outlook, on the other hand, is computed by subtracting the percentage of respondents who say business in the next three months is likely to decrease from the percentage of those who say it will increase.
<b>Different stories</b><br>
Among cities, there is an increase in the employment outlook index points of Mumbai, Delhi and Pune, while Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Ahmedabad have seen a dip.
As for hiring, while class-I cities have seen a growth, metros have seen a decline. Employers have shown a preference for hiring from class-II, class-III and rural areas as well.
The intention to hire across all managerial levels is gradually on the rise, which is a reverse trend when compared with the numbers in the previous quarter.
Sampath Shetty, vice-president, TeamLease Services, said, "The not-so-positive pointers in the market, right from the dollar depreciation, sub-prime fiasco, the US recession and finally the Indian bourses down, have definitely impacted the employment growth in the last few months. The IT and ITeS sector is the worst hit, with the US economy conundrum having an implication on hiring sentiments with a wait-and-watch approach in India."
The current financial market has influenced the not-so-optimistic business outlook for the next quarter, which has had an implication on the engineering sector. But with the India growth story fundamentally well grounded, it has resulted in encouraging hiring plans by the retail, FMCG, telecom and insurance sectors.
"The infrastructure deficit in the country has kept the momentum of FDI influx consistent, which has stimulated humongous job opportunities in this sector," Shetty said.
The report states that non-IT organisations have been aggressively hiring in this campus season, largely in the sales and marketing functions.
With the not-so-impressive salary hike in the current appraisal year, organisations foresee a lot of lateral movements over the next quarter.
In the new financial year, business confidence looks grim, especially on the IT and ITeS front. At this stage, the challenge for organisations would be to consolidate their resources to optimal productivity.