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Climate talks: The story so far

By Gopal Krishna
October 09, 2009 19:05 IST
Amid the complete breakdown of the Bangkok talks, Lumumba D'Aping, deputy chairperson, G-77 said, "We will not walk out of the talks. We represent 80 per cent of the population of the world, and our citizens are suffering from climate change."

A joint statement by the group of 130 developing countries referred to as G-77 and China, notes that the US and EU are attempting to terminate the Kyoto Protocol and all relevant international negotiations over its next phase.

Responding to a question on Saudi Arabia's seemingly shifting position within G-77, he said, Europeans have a "Divide and Rule Manual" but Group of 77 which was established in 1964 remains united in the face of collusion among rich nations.

The Bangkok Climate Change talks were preceded by the UN Climate Change Summit in New York on 22 September, convened by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, at which the government clearly called for a comprehensive climate change agreement in Copenhagen.

The Bangkok meeting will be followed by a final five days of pre-Copenhagen negotiations in Barcelona, Spain during 2-6 November 2009.

The Bangkok talks are a last chance to sign a deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol, whose first commitment period expires in 2012.

The negotiations focused on the five elements: adaptation action, REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries), technology, capacity building, and institutional arrangements for finance.

The key focus is on obtaining clarity on further emission reduction commitments for industrialised countries. Important technical work under the Kyoto Protocol was expected to be taken forward on issues such as land use, land-use change and forestry, identifying new greenhouse gases to be included in the Copenhagen agreed outcome and defining base years for emission cuts.

Countries like US, EU and other rich countries are ignoring the equity issues in order to protect their production and consumption pattern. Indian Prime Minister's special envoy on climate change, Shyam Saran reiterated the obvious aspects of Kyoto Protocol.

The most important issue is whether the developed countries are able to come up with very clear and significant target for reduction of their emissions, on which all parties have not been able to reach an agreement.

Saran noted, "About 60-70 per cent of such technologies are already available. We need a zero-tariff regime on these and eco-friendly goods. There is an extraordinary responsibility" to spread these technologies as well as a global mechanism to adapt them to different regions, which is why India was advocating regional innovation centres."

Developing countries like India, China and other members of G-77 underscored the fundamental responsibility of rich countries to reduce their emissions in aggregate by 40- 45 per cent by 2020 and said that if parties disagreed with this level of responsibility they should define their collective responsibility.

India emphasised that climate technology transfer does not refer to commercial transfer but to concessional transfer. US along with the EU is emphasizing the importance of the private sector and the carbon markets towards financing of the climate solutions.

Developed countries are seeking to erase the distinction between developed and developing countries and impose new mitigation and reporting commitments on the latter.

China opposed the proposals, noting historical responsibility and the clear distinction between mitigation by developed and developing countries, also reflected in the Bali Action Plan.

Barack Obama's energy adviser, Carol Browner said that she did not expect the US Senate to vote on the crucial climate change bill before the Copenhagen talks at a conference hosted by the Atlantic magazine in Washington.

"The United States wants to have a national target without binding it to a global treaty. It appears to have won over many other developed countries. They are stressing that developing countries have 'common' responsibilities," said Martin Khor, director, South Centre, an intergovernmental organization of developing countries based in Geneva.

The EU clarified that their intention is "not to step away from the Protocol," but to build on it. It explained that their preferred outcome from Copenhagen would be an integrated instrument.

India has proposed the establishment of a new financial mechanism. G-77 and China have stressed that the group's mandate is to consider the "full, sustained and effective implementation of the Convention."

Notably, the financial crisis has led to delay in the investments in polluting technologies. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions is expected to fall in 2009 by as much as 3 per cent - steeper than at any time in the last 40 years, finds the International Energy Agency (IEA)'s new study.

The economic downturn has created an opportunity to put the global energy system on a trajectory to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions at 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide-equivalent, in line with an increase in global temperature of around 2 degrees Celsius.

The IEA 450 ppm scenario sees the use of fossil fuels peak before 2020, and energy related carbon dioxide emissions just 6 per cent higher in 2020 than in 2007.

To undertake radical energy policy reversal, incremental investment of $10 trillion will be necessary between 2010 and 2030 in the energy sector - equivalent to 0.5 per cent of global GDP in 2020, rising to 1.1 per cent of GDP in 2030.

In 2020, the energy sector in non Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries would need to make $200 billion of extra investments in clean power, energy-efficiency measures in industry and buildings and next-generation hybrid and electric vehicles.

For this, developing countries will need some financial support from OECD countries. OECD domestic investment needs amount to a further $ 215 billion in 2020.

But the benefits, in terms of energy savings, reduced fuel imports and air quality improvements offset much of this extra cost, not to mention the fact that this will help to avoid extreme climate change.

Every year of delay in adopting a green pathway adds an extra $500 billion to the investment needed between 2010 and 2030 in the energy sector.

India has noted that the new report by the World Bank on the 'Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change' estimates that $75-100 billion per year is required for adaptation in developing countries.

Developing countries are opposed to "the concerted efforts to put the Kyoto Protocol aside."  Saran noted that most of the developed countries missed their targets for the first commitment period.

The Kyoto is a valid legal document and the negotiations taking place right now have nothing to do with bringing in another protocol. We are not only focusing on carbon emissions, we have a much broader agenda in terms of climate action plan.

Gopal Krishna in Bangkok

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