With deficient monsoon reducing hydropower generation in the country by around 40 per cent, the power ministry has started stressing more on power from coal and natural gas. The ministry has said that gas-based power plants are running near full capacity for the first time, helping the country marginally offset the shortfall in hydropower generation.
According to the latest figures, hydropower generation has fallen to 25,000 Mw from 36,000 Mw in the last fortnight, though the demand for power is rising by around 3,900 Mw daily. During the last fortnight, the shortfall in hydropower generation has been as high as 72 million units to 126 MUs per day as compared with the corresponding period last year.
"We are keeping the Ministry of Agriculture informed and are in touch with the meteorological department. A contingency plan may be rolled out by July 10 if there are no rains, though the Directorate General of the Indian Meteorological Department has informed us that heavy rains are expected in the next 72 hours," Power Secretary HS Brahma told Business Standard.
In its latest report, IMD has forecast widespread rainfall over west coast, east coast, north-eastern states, Chhattisgarh, North Andhra Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar islands.
According to Brahma, gas-based generation has risen 2,000 Mw to 14,000 Mw after Reliance Industries started producing gas from its Krishna-Godavari (K-G) field.
"The recession in industry and reduced fertiliser production, leading to less utilisation of gas, is benefitting us (power sector)," he said, adding that RIL's gas has come as a relief. The supply from the RIL's block has made the power ministry confident of overcoming the darkened monsoon prospects.
Though natural gas accounted for a small part of the total power generated in the country in contrast with hydropower, which constitutes 25 per cent of the 150,000 Mw installed capacity, Brahma said even if the generation had risen 2,000 Mw, it was a big relief.
Coal-based generation has also gone up by 800 Mw. "We generally increase our production in peak summer months. In fact, we do not undertake any maintenance during this period," said a senior official from National Thermal Power Corporation.
Brahma said availability of water for power generation was down to 15,000 cusecs in contrast with the normal level of 20,000 cusecs. The situation will turn alarming only if monsoon is more than 10 per cent below normal.
"Up to now, there has been no significant shortfall in generation. But if the monsoon is delayed by 15-20 days, a marginal impact can occur on generation from some projects which are reservoir-based," said a senior official from National Hydroelectric Power Corporation, the country's largest hydropower company.
NHPC has an installed capacity of 5,175 Mw, constituting 4 per cent of the country's total, most of which is contributed by the run-of-the-river projects. RoR projects are immune to monsoon, as they are fed by Himalayan glaciers.
The official, however, added that the projects owned by its subsidiary, Narmada Hydroelectric development Corporation, could be hit due to the delayed monsoon, as most of its capacity is reservoir-based. NHDC has an installed capacity of around 1,500 Mw, which includes the 1,000-Mw Indirasagar reservoir-based project in Madhya Pradesh.
The problem is specifically acute in northern and north-eastern parts of the country. More than 100 hydropower stations, that is, 60 per cent of the 174 stations, are in North India, which is facing deficient rains.
With isolated heavy rainfall over Assam and Meghalaya, the situation in the North-East has partially improved, though these rains help only marginally, since hydropower capacity is concentrated in Arunachal Pradesh.
Brahma said if RIL increased its gas production to 80 million standard cubic metres a day (mscmd), the allocation to the power sector would go up from 18 mscmd to 36-40 mscmd. He sees this happening by the end of December. "Ultimately, we have to devise ways other than just coal and water for power-generation. The country must look for a greater share of nuclear power by 2020. It may take some time, but we must look forward," said Brahma.