India's exports could grow 15-20 per cent in 2003-04 despite the severe acute respiratory syndrome scare and the Iraq war, according to estimates by several export promotion councils.
Textile exports, which have the highest share in India's export basket, are projected to grow 25 per cent to $16.31 billion in the current financial year from the provisional estimate of $13 billion.
In this sector, exports of ready-made garments were likely to grow 31 per cent to $6.25 billion from $4.77 billion in 2002-03, estimates provided by the Apparel Export Promotion Council said.
The exports of drugs and pharmaceuticals are estimated to rise 25 per cent to $3.06 billion in the current financial year from $2.45 billion last year.
Chemexil has projected a growth of over 20 per cent for exports of drugs and pharmaceuticals, dyes, organic and agricultural chemicals, cosmetics and toiletries and castor oil.
While the export promotion council for the gems and jewellery industry was yet to set a target for the year, the council's officiating executive director Meena Dharod said the healthy growth was expected to continue.
The sector posted a growth of 18 per cent in 2002-03 and double-digit growth was forecast for the current financial year.
The Engineering Export Promotion Council is also in the process of setting the target for the year. CS Shukla, executive director, EEPC, is hopeful of a 15 per cent growth. In the last financial year, exports grew over 24 per cent to $ 6.65 billion.
The Chemicals & Allied Products Export Promotion Council has set a 14.3 per cent growth target for 2003-04. Exports are estimated to reach $4.35 billion.
Capexil had projected a 19 per cent growth target for the previous financial year. Capexil has lowered its target taking into consideration the Sars scare.
"Sars will have an impact and business in certain Asian countries has already been affected, but the kind of growth we have projected should not be unattainable because we have accounted for the impact of Sars," Capexil chairman MF Vohra said.
Commerce secretary Dipak Chatterjee is slated to discuss the current financial year's export targets with export promotion councils on May 6 and the councils are in the process of submitting their targets to the government.
The optimism on exports is based on the fact that the Iraq war is over and there are signs of recovery in some Western economies.