Its projected shortfall in internal resource generation for meeting its 12th Plan outlay (2012-17) is Rs 2,00,000 crore (Rs 2,000 billion).
The ministry of railways has projected a three-time increase in Plan size to Rs 7,19,677 crore (Rs 7,196.77 billion) for the five-year period.
Of this, 28 per cent is supposed to come from internal resource generation.
At the beginning of the 11th Plan, spending of Rs 2,33,289 crore (Rs 2,332.89 billion) was envisaged; instead, railways is expected to wrap up the current Plan with Rs 2,03,311 crore (Rs 2,033.11 billion).
Vision 2020, unveiled during former minister Mamata Banerjee's tenure in 2009, envisages railways make an investment of Rs 14 lakh crore (Rs 14 trillion) for capacity creation, network expansion, upgradation and modernisation of infrastructure.
Around half the 12th Plan funding need, amounting to Rs 3,54,024 crore (Rs 3,540.24 billion), is expected to come as gross budgetary support.
Another 28 per cent is to be from internal resources. extra budgetary resource-funding is required to the tune of 20 per cent, said an official.
This includes Indian Railway Finance Corporation borrowings, public-private partnerships and wagon investment schemes. A small two per cent is expected from the railway safety fund.
According to the ministry of railways' projections, "With receipts of Rs 7,36,278 crore (Rs 7,362.78 billion) and expenditure of Rs 6,99,238 crore (Rs 6,992.38 billion) during the period, the internal resource available during the XII Plan is only Rs 36,440 crore (Rs 364.4 billion), highly inadequate compared to the requirement of Rs 2,01,805 crore (Rs 2,018.05 billion), a gap of Rs 1,65,365 crore (Rs 1,653.65 billion)."
The receipts of Rs 7,36,278 crore (Rs 7,362.78 billion) in the Plan are based on assumptions of passenger growth of seven per cent, derived yield from passenger-km at a compounded annual growth rate of 3.1 per cent and a passenger earnings CAGR of 11.3 per cent.
In the freight segment, the loading is expected to increase incrementally by 110 mt each year.
Earnings are expected to increase to Rs 1,10,989 crore (Rs 1,109.89 billion) in 2016-17, with a CAGR of 9.9 per cent over 2010-11.
The yield per net-tonne km (ntkm) is expected to increase by 10 per cent from the 109.56 paise of 2011-12 to 119.69 paise in 2016-17, with a CAGR of 2.4 per cent.
Mounting expenses
The expenses are likely to shoot up. The ordinary working expenses of staff costs, stores, contractual payments, fuel for traction and lease charges is expected to have a CAGR of 11
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