We will see more crises, warns expert

If we are able to get our act together this year, we may be able to see growth climb again to more than eight per cent, says a forex expert.

Jamal Mecklai, Chief Executive Officer, Mecklai Financial Services Ltd, says Western governments inability to come to terms with the facts of globalisation is behind the financial crises in the developed world.

He tells Faisal Kidwai in an interview that he wants the Budget to focus on three main areas.

Here are the excerpts:

What is your take on the dollar? Are you bullish on it in the near future?

I have been bullish on the dollar for the past few months; my sense is that it will continue to be strong this year, albeit with high volatility.

Why do you think the rupee is relentlessly rising? Which factors are pushing it up?

The rupee has been strong on the back of inflows driven by the substantial liquidity addition by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. While this liquidity will remain high, my sense is that dollar strength will begin to impact the rupee - thus, I see (again) considerable volatility and a range of 45 to 55 for the next 12

months.

The Indian stock market was one of the worst performing markets in the region, but now we are seeing a change. Do you see this trend continuing?

The stock market has rebounded quite nicely driven by global liquidity plus the continuing belief in the India story. The Budget will tell the story.

Both Europe and the US are going through tough economic times. How do you see the global economic scenario playing out? Do you think the global slowdown can hurt India's growth further?

The rolling crises in the developed world are a result of the inability, or unwillingness, of the Western governments to come to terms with the facts of globalisation. As a result, policies continue to remain short term; this means we will see more crises in months to come and, of course, India will be affected by these.

Timing is everything; if we are able to get our act together this year, we may be able to see growth climb again to more than eight per cent.

What are your expectations from the annual general Budget?

I would like to see strong focus on agricultural, education and financial sector reforms.