The US economy, as shown in Table 1, has been growing comfortably around and over two per cent year-on-year for several quarters.
Even more to the point, unemployment is down to 5 per cent and the job openings rate has been steadily climbing, as Table 2 makes clear.
Extraordinarily low interest rates have lasted very long indeed by historical standards -- as Table 3 demonstrates -- and the pressure to tighten is considerable.
However, yields on 10-year US Treasury Bills -- shown in Table 4 -- have not moved notably in anticipation, suggesting the market does not believe that the Fed will be capable of following up a December hike with sustained tightening.
The dollar, too, may have priced in a December hike, as Table 6 suggests -- gold prices, which move inversely with the dollar index, have fallen.
Finally, Table 7 shows that other developed-world central banks have kept the money taps flowing -- while several closely watched rates in the emerging-market world have also declined of late.
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