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Another CRR cut likely: Economists

By BS Reporter in New Delhi
October 08, 2008 09:56 IST

Economists are now predicting that Reserve Bank of India would resort to another round of cut in the cash  reserve ratio in order to inject extra liquidity into the money market.

"But there are other folks out there. The key is making sure that the next treasury secretary understands that it  is not enough just to help those at the top.

"Prosperity is not just going to trickle down. We have got to help the middle-class."

In the wake of the ongoing global financial crisis, lending between banks has become costlier because of demand  exceeding the supply in the money market.

"The RBI's decision to cut CRR is a right move. But it does not signal that interest rates are coming down," said Dharmakirti Joshi, economist with CRISIL, a ratings and advisory firm. "Another round of cut in CRR is expected", he added.

CRR is the percentage of bank deposits that are parked with the RBI and is used as a monetary tool to manage the  availability of cash in the system.

RBI, on Monday, cut the CRR rate by 50 basis points, a move that is expected to bring an additional Rs 20,000 crore (Rs 200 billion) into the system.

Shankar Acharya, honorary professor with the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, said it was only natural that CRR would be cut when capital is flowing out of the country.

RBI resorted to higher CRR as a way of 'sterilising' (referring to taking excess liquidity) unprecedented capital inflow in the last three years up to March 2008, he said.

Foreign investors have so far taken out in excess of $9 billion from the Indian equity market and this has put  pressure on Indian rupee, which crossed the Rs 48 mark to a dollar on Tuesday.

Joshi said that the RBI defending the Indian rupee against the dollar is also affecting the liquidity in the market. To prop up the rupee, RBI is buying rupees and selling dollars in the currency market.

Globally, the lack of trust in the wake of subprime crisis in the US has affected lending in the credit market.

This has sharply increased the short term borrowing rates for banks and also for companies. Led by the US central  bank, Federal Reserve, several central banks are addressing this problem by providing additional liquidity to the credit market.

"Now that the holy coconut of the CRR has been broken, further cuts cannot be ruled out. CRR changes are never announced in scheduled policy meetings as they are a response to the evolving liquidity scenario", said Rajeev Malik of Macquarie Research in a released.

"The policy meeting (of RBI) on October 24 is now largely academic, unless the global backdrop and dollar supply  into India worsen significantly. The hey takeaway from the policy statement will likely to be the RBI's expectation of the inflation trajectory, and its guidance- if any- about the timing of the monetary easing given downward risks to growth," Malik added.

Going forward, Acharya said it would be a wrong policy on the part of RBI to defend the exchange rate in the background of foreign institutional investors taking money from India.

Malik said: "We continue to expect nearly 200 basis point cuts in the repo rate (the rate at which the RBI injects liquidity) and the CRR from early next year."

BS Reporter in New Delhi
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