India and China will become an integral part of the global power structure by 2015 and will remain in that growth trajectory till 2020 before they leap frog to become a part of the tri-polar world along with the US by 2035, said a reputed economist.
"Both India and China would become major power centers by 2015 even while remaining middle income countries on account of their having the highest population in the world," Arvind Virmani, Chief Economic Adviser, Ministry of Finance, said while addressing members of PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Terming his views as purely personal and based on extensive research over a period of time, he said there will not be any marked change in the share of India's population to the world's population till 2050. But the share of China's population to the total would show a significant decline, from a high of 22 per cent in 2002 to under 18 p
er cent in 2025.
China's population would slide further to 16 per cent in 2050,
and it will be overtaken by India in the population count, he said.
Virmani noted that for becoming a global power in the emerging global architecture, it is not necessary to become a developed country or a super power.
He said that power is always relative and is measured by indices like GDP at purchasing power parity, level of technology (skill factor) and relative welfare measured in terms of per capita income.
Virmani said that the transformation of India and China into global middle income powers by 2015 would be through a combination of factors like economic, demographic, strategic positioning and alliances.