Given the poor employment numbers released last week, wherein job creation actually turned negative for the first time in years, the probability of a Fed rate cut has only increased.
The poor employment numbers have probably given Bernanke the cover he needs to claim that any cuts in rates are due to the weakening economy and not designed to bail out investors. The chances are now pretty high that we will see the beginning of an extended Fed easing cycle starting from September 18 itself.
Even though most commentators still feel that the US will escape once again with a soft landing, and growth will not drop below 2 per cent, the risks of a recession have clearly increased significantly.
Given the extent of the US sub-prime mess, both in magnitude and duration, it does seem a bit of wishful thinking to assume that the worst that can happen is that economic growth will slow to only 2%, and that too for only a quarter or two. My own sense is that this slowdown will be more severe and more protracted than the consensus currently thinks as the headwinds facing the US consumer are multifold.
From oil prices to the old bugbear of near zero savings and consumption ratios at all-time highs, the US consumer is over-extended and the day of reckoning may have arrived. One just has to see the data on the quantum of mortgages still to be repriced, and recognise that credit flows to anything non-investment grade have been totally shut to become even more bearish.
However, one has to be conscious of the fact that it has not paid to bet against the US consumer, as the bears have been calling for a sharp slowdown in consumption for years now, mostly to no avail. We will see what happens over the coming 12 months, but again the vulnerability of US consumption has never been higher.
Also as various academic studies have shown, the economic consequences of a housing market bubble bursting are far more protracted and consequential than a bursting of a bubble in the financial markets. If this finding were to hold true this time as well, the problems are likely to be deeper and the workout longer than currently envisaged.
As I remain more bearish than the consensus on consumption in the US, I also feel that this Fed easing cycle will also be longer and deeper than most expect.
Now if you believe in a new Fed easing cycle, the obvious question is what this will mean for Asian markets and India.
Whenever the Fed has cut rates and dropped a chunk of liquidity into the markets, it is setting the stage for this liquidity to eventually move into some new asset class and drive up prices.
The asset class that is the beneficiary of this liquidity largesse is typically that segment of the market which has the best fundamentals. We have already seen this dynamic in play post-1998, when the liquidity pumped in by the Fed found its way into the tech sector, which had great fundamentals at the time. A similar move happened in 2001, when post 9/11 the Fed cut and once again this liquidity eventually found its way into the housing sector (which again had good fundamentals at the time).
My own guess is that the chief beneficiary of this new cycle of interest rate cuts and liquidity injections will be emerging markets more generally and Asia specifically. The emerging markets have never had better fundamentals, and report after report is talking about decoupling and how we are transitioning towards an EM-led world.
Investors never tire these days of pointing out how Asia runs a current account surplus, has fiscal flexibility and far lower leverage than the West. The earnings trajectory and capital efficiency of Asia is also now superior to the more developed markets of the US and Europe. Valuations in Asia, while not cheap, are still far below what they were the last time Asia was in fashion in 1993-94.
In this correction EMBI+ (Emerging Market Bond Index) spreads have widened far less than high yield bonds and the whole asset class has bounced back strong from initial jitters, indicating that investors are buying into the whole decoupling thesis. Contagion has not really spread from the developed credit markets into EM equities.
Commentators are making the point that just as a strong US economy bailed out the world post the Asian crisis and implosions across the EM world, robust growth in Asia will bail out the world this time.
The asset class is acting far better than you would have guessed in an environment of global risk reduction and de-leveraging. The price action of the whole commodity complex also seems to indicate that markets believe that strong Asian growth can sustain the global economy despite the US slowdown.
As Asian corporate and economic performance holds up in this US led slowdown, you are likely to see more institutions hike their allocations towards Asia and EM, and the flow of money this will trigger can also be massive. In most surveys, you can clearly see that even the most sophisticated investors like endowments and family offices are below their intended long-term weights in Asia and the EM class as a whole.
The contrasting fundamentals between Asia and the US over the coming 12 months will likely accelerate this structural asset allocation shift.
Post a Fed easing cycle, money has always flown into that asset class that has shown the best fundamentals and growth at that point in time. If you see current market behaviour, investor positioning and actual fundamentals, my own guess is that Asia can be the biggest beneficiary of the Fed's easing. Asia has now become the strongest link in the global economic and financial system, and will be priced as such.
As an India-specific aside, I cannot imagine now how the RBI's next move will not be to ease rates. Inflation has already come under control, we are about to enter an election cycle and every major central bank in the world has kept interest rates steady or cutting them. If, as it appears, the RBI will cut rates from here on, that is a huge positive for India.
However, the concerns the RBI seems to have on capital inflows will only accentuate in the above environment; capital outflows from India will have to be liberalised, and the RBI will soon have no choice on this. Another dilemma is the currency -- let it appreciate? Or should we risk a sharp rise in domestic liquidity as the RBI keeps buying up dollars.
Again one cannot predict the next couple of months, and we could very easily go through another rocky patch for markets as investors start pricing in a more negative outcome for the US than the current consensus.
However post that I still believe, the new Fed easing cycle will be a huge positive for Asia and the EM asset class. Asia and its companies have the best growth, returns and visibility, all of which become even more valuable in a choppy global economic environment.