BUSINESS

Why Indians are besieged by gold

By Meera Varma, Commodity Online
November 28, 2007 15:28 IST

Instead of investing all their annual savings in gold, if the people in India were to invest in more productive business assets, the country's annual GDP growth would be higher by about 0.3–0.4 per cent.

Indians love for the yellow metal continue; and proof of it is there everywhere. Go to any small or big towns in India; there is a new jewellery showroom coming up.

Here are some interesting 'golden facts' you need to know about Indians' perpetual fascination for the bewitching, yellow metal.

According to the World Gold Council, Indian households own about 15,000 tones of gold, accounting for about 10 per cent of the worldwide stock.

At current market values, we estimate that gold accounts for about 10–15 per cent of the Indian household balance sheet.

Gold holdings among Indian households at current market value is about 2.5 times the current equity stock holding of US$80 billion.

While the share of gold in household savings declined during 2001–03 to 5 per cent, we estimate that this has risen again back to 6.5 per cent during the quarter ended March 2005.

With its high rate of gold consumption, India accounts for 18 per cent of the annual global gold demand, while its share of global GDP on nominal dollar GDP is only 1.6 per cent.

India's share of global gold demand is about one and a half times that of the US, though its GDP is only one twentieth that of the US.

The cumulative GDP value lost by parking US$200 billion worth of savings over the years in this not so productive asset would be huge. With no domestic gold mining, the purchase of gold is also resulting in an inappropriate use of foreign exchange earnings.

Over the last 20 years, the share of financial savings in India has remained stagnant at an average of 50 per cent.

Over the last two years, the share of gold in household savings also appears to have risen again. Indeed, over the same period our approximate analysis based on the stake holdings trend for the top 200 companies (which account for 84 per cent of the total market capitalization) and purchase of mutual funds indicate that over the last 24 months while Indian households' investments in gold is rising, their allocation to equities has fallen, reflecting their risk aversion.

Meera Varma, Commodity Online

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