India's wheat production in 2007 is expected to exceed 72.5 million tonnes, up from 69.4 million tonnes a year ago.
P K Mishra, secretary, agriculture department told Commodity Online that India is awaiting record wheat production. "Our wheat output this year will certainly cross 72.5 million tones," the official said.
Many believe a record production in wheat crop could help Finance Minister P Chidambaram win the battle against rising inflation.
Agricultural scientists have predicted that India's wheat crop this year will be a record breaking one, if the current weather situation is anything to go by.
The area under wheat cultivation in India this year at an all-time-high of 28.5 million hectares.
According to Jag Shoran, principal scientist at the directorate of Wheat Research, Karnal, the prevailing temperatures are ideal for grain filling.
Rains in February have ensured that the crop is nowhere facing moisture stress. And there has been no incidence of rust, aphids or termites. We can expect a record wheat crop this year," he said.
According to government estimates, sensing a steady rise in prices, farmers have planted wheat in about 1.5 million hectares earmarked for other crops.
Further, non-traditional growing States like Bihar and West Bengal have also brought in nearly 10 lakh hectares of additional acreage under wheat this year.
Acreage has increased in Bihar (3.8 lakh hectares), Gujarat (2.2 lh),Haryana (0.5 lh), Karnataka (0.6 lh), Madhya Pradesh (4.6 lh), Maharashtra (1.3 lh), West Bengal (0.5 lh) and Uttar Pradesh (2.8 lh).
The major reason for the shift to wheat cultivation was on account of firm prices during the sowing period. Market opinions regarding this year's crop also appear to be mixed.
Trade and industry are not optimistic about the government's projection of wheat output in the current season at 74
million tonnes. According to them, wheat output would be 72.8 million tonnes.
The wheat crops this year has not been also affected by any major disease or pest problems.
Dr Shoran said the only thing standing in the way of a bumper harvest is rains accompanied by hail and fast winds, which could make the ear-heads heavy and cause lodging.
The wheat crop in Punjab, Haryana and the rest of the Indo-Gangetic plain is now at the `early dough' stage, which follows ear-head emergence and flowering towards the last week of February.
The 40-45 days after flowering is the time for `grain filling', which, to a large extent, determines the weight (and, therefore, yield) of the grain harvested after mid-April. In the present early dough period, the starch matter is still milky and semi-solid.
As long as maximum temperatures are within 35 degrees Celsius till the last week of March, the normal onset of summer would dry up the moisture and make the grain hard.
Scientists estimate that every extra day on the field after mid-March means an additional grain weight of 45-50 kg per hectare.
Thus, if the crop matures 10 days early, it translates into a yield loss of roughly half a tonne.
But the prolonged dry spell right till end-January is expected to cause some yield loss in the rainfed wheat grown in most of Central India (Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat).
February rains have eased the moisture stress in the region, where the crop matures by end-March and the grain filling stage is complete.
It is the main Indo-Gangetic wheat belt that holds the real key to a bountiful harvest. And here, scientists say the wheat crop is in very good condition.