"Despite recent easing, it will be prudent to presume that oil prices at current levels may still contain some elements of a 'permanent' component which is yet to be matched by full pass through," the apex bank said in its mid-term review of Annual Policy for FY'07.
Oil prices are now ruling at just below $60 a barrel compared to $76 a barrel level in August. Further, RBI pointed out to quickening of domestic industrial activity and high international commodity prices and said that "it is desirable to watch for incipient pressures building up on prices."
The central bank has projected that Inflation, which is now hovering at over 5 per cent, would be in the range of 5-5.5 per cent in FY'07.
RBI maintained that the seasonal movements in prices of food articles also need to be monitored for the rest of the year given their "criticality for inflation perceptions and consequently inflation expectations".
The primary food article prices have been the key driver for inflation in the first half of this fiscal, along with crude oil which, however, has shown a declining trend now.
Warning of a possibly higher inflation toward the end of the fiscal, the RBI said that the positive base effect that had couched the impact of upside pressures on price changes so far could wear off by then.
Unlike the first half of the year, it is difficult to assess whether productivity gains and competitive conditions would help in absorbing the high input costs in the months ahead, the apex bank said.
Pointing out that the consumer prices for all categories have been rising through the H1 FY07, Reserve Bank said that this reflects the impact of heightened primary product prices including those of essential commodities.
"The wedge between consumer prices and wholesale prices remains larger than before," the central bank said, adding that while fiscal and monetary measures have helped mitigate inflationary risks, there are reasons to be vigilant on this front.
According to the central bank, the outlook for inflation is more likely to be driven by demand conditions rather than by the strong positive supply side effects.