India will need a growth rate of 133 per cent in case of total Internet subscribers (18 million by 2007) and 477 per cent in case of broadband subscribers if it hopes to achieve the target it set of 18 million (Internet) and 9 million (broadband) by 2007.
TRAI in a recent study paper admits this shortfall is increasing. About 20 per cent of the total Internet subscribers are broadband subscribers, but this segment is growing at a faster rate, the paper suggest. As of June 06, there were 7.71 million Internet subscribers (including broadband) and 1.56 broadband subscribers (currently it's around 1.9 million).
As against a target of three million broadband connections by 2005, only 0.18 million (6 per cent) were achieved till 2005 end. As against a target of 6 million Internet (and broadband) subscribers, the country registered 5.55 million.
The Internet subscribers (including 20 million broadband) target for 2010 is 40 million. The annual growth rate of Internet subscribers seen for the last three years is about 25 per cent. Growth rate for the quarter ending June-06 has been 11 per cent, translating into an annual growth rate of about 44 per cent.
Incidentally, there are 153 ISPs in operation. Around 86 per cent of the total Internet subscriber base (including broadband as on June 30, 2006) is with five leading ISPs - Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (43.07 per cent), Mahanagar Telecom Nigam Ltd (19.26 per cent), Sify (11.83 per cent), Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd (6.12 per cent) and Bharti Televentures (5.73 per cent). Around 62 per cent of the total Internet subscribers was with PSUs (BSNL/MTNL) as against 56 per cent in March 2006.
And pricing is an issue. Composite tariff for Internet access through cyber-cafés generally ranges between Rs 5-15 for an hour (Rs 10 being most common). Minimum monthly outgo of a dial-up subscriber for an average usage of three hours per month (during peak hours) is about Rs 72 in Mumbai and Delhi and Rs 47 in rest of India. If we give weightage to off-peak hour usage, the subscribers' monthly outgo would further drop, the TRAI paper notes.
Minimum monthly outgo for a broadband subscriber is Rs 199 in Delhi and Mumbai and Rs 250 in rest of India, as these are the monthly rental, which is to be paid even if the subscriber does not access the Internet.
Effective charge per hour for dial-up service for high users (unlimited usage plan) assuming an average usage of 8 hours per day ranges between Rs 10.58 to Rs 24.59 during peak hours.
For broadband services, the corresponding figure ranges between Rs 3.75-5.83. From the above, it can be concluded that as the usage and the quality requirement of the subscriber goes up, broadband becomes cheaper.