Consumer durables boom to continue!

As we step into a new era of younger population mix increasing and per-capita income growing at a faster rate in light of the growing contribution of the services sector to the GDP, demand prospects are promising.

But will players be able to sustain profitability with threat from imports growing day-by-day?

Budget Measures

	Excise duty has been imposed @ 2% on articles of jewellery on which a brand name or trade name is indelibly affixed or embossed on the articles of jewellery itself. Unbranded articles of jewellery and other articles of precious metals will continue to be exempt from duty. Imitation jewellery to attract lower excise duty of 8% as compared to 16% earlier.
	Excise duty on air conditioners is being reduced from 24% to 16%. Consequently, abatement from retail sale price is also being reduced from 35% to 30%.
	Peak customs duty reduced from 20% to 15%.
	The new income tax brackets, the change in exemption and deductions available to individuals and the increase in exemption for women.

Budget Impact

	The excise duty on branded jewellery will have a bearing on the margins of Titan, the listed player on the stock markets. The impact is likely to be even larger because the unbranded market has been left untouched resulting in better competitiveness. The Finance Minister has slowed the shift from unorganised to organised players.
	As far as the reduction in customs duty is concerned, while manufacturers will benefit from lower costs of buying picture tubes and other components, it also opens the sector for more foreign competition. The net impact on margins is likely to be minimal, as price decline is a name of the game. Having said that, the lower customs duty will partly impact the grey market, which is significant as per our interaction with the industry.
	The reduction in excise duty on A/C's will benefit players like Voltas, Blue Star and the like. But the impact on the lower abatement is yet to be ascertained.

Sector Outlook

As we see it, India's per capita penetration of white goods continues to remain dismal. Availability of easy financing options, increased competition resulting in falling prices and reduction in customs duty has been boosting retail sales. We expect these factors to continue to assist white goods demand going forward. However, as a matter of conservatism, keeping in mind the paltry margins and the highly commoditised nature of the sector, we would classify this sector as a high-risk one for retail investors.

Industry Wish List

	Increase in abatement on watches to 40% and reduction in customs duty on key raw materials. Exemption of excise duty on watches and clocks of retail price not exceeding Rs 500 per piece.
	Excise duty on B&W TV set should be based on MRP with an abatement of 40%.
	There should be customs duty differential between CTV, colour picture tube and colour glass parts to encourage value addition.

Budget over the years

Budget 2002-03	Budget 2003-04	Budget 2004-05

Thrust in rural electrification and road connectivity. Peak customs duty on raw materials lowered to 35% from 40%. Excise duty on watches below Rs 500 per piece increased. Excise duty on B&W TV increased to 8% from 4%. Administered interest rates lowered by 50 basis points.	Significant thrust on infrastructure development and continuation of rural electrification projects 04 Hike in standard deduction, removal of surcharge and hike in section 80L benefits Peak customs duty reduced to 25% from 30%. Excise duty on air conditioners reduced by 8% from 32% to 24%	Excise duty on clocks, watches of retail sales prices upto Rs 500 per piece is being raised from 8% and 16%. Parts of clocks, watches of retail price upto Rs 500 per piece will now be liable to tariff with an effective tax rate of 16%. Excise duty on monochrome television has been raised from 8% to 16%. CTV will attract a uniform excise duty of 16%. Excise duty on imitation jewellery has been raised from 8% to 16%. Increased spending on infrastructure and maintaining economic growth momentum from a long-term perspective.
		[Read more on Budget 2004-05]

Key Positives

	Yet to catch up: Penetration of durables continues to remain sluggish when compared to other developing economies.
	The India story: Rising income levels, consumption patterns and urbanization are some of the key factors that would result in higher growth in volumes in the long run.
	Better affordability: Easy availability of finance has stimulated consumers to buy durables.
	Rural unexploited: With the government focusing on rural electrification programme, the consumer electronic manufacturers stand to benefit over a period of time. But this has been slow to come by.

Key Negatives

	Mismatch in duties: Higher import duty on key raw materials (ex: colour picture tubes) has been a cause of concern.
	Fiercely competitive: Exchange schemes and pricing-play by some manufacturers have had a negative impact on top players. Prices of durables and electronics have been on the decline over the last three years
	Growth is slow: Volatile performance of the agricultural sector has had a negative impact on demand. The sector's performance is highly dependent on monsoon and reforms, which has failed often.
	Imports Vs Indian: Threats of cheaper imports from China and other South East Asian countries, both for electronics and watches.

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