The bulls have notched up a score of 6-4 over the last 10 Budgets. In the past decade, the Sensex rose on Budget day six times and fell four times.
A study of the wild swings of the stock market on Budget day between 1995 and 2004 shows the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex reacted sharply as many as eight times.
On three occasions, the Budget proposals pulled down the Sensex by over 100 points. In 2000, the Sensex crashed 293.71 points. The index zoomed thrice, spurting 160-225 points. Only on one occasion did the Sensex move in a narrow range, registering a single-digit gain.
During the decade, Yashwant Sinha presented the maximum number of Budgets (five times between 1998 and 2002), followed by P Chidambaram (thrice, in 1996, 1997 and 2004), Jaswant Singh and Manmohan Singh (once each in 1995 and 2003, respectively).
In 2004-05, when the United Progressive Alliance presented its Budget on July 8, the Sensex gained 50 points during the opening hours but dived 112 points thereafter on account of the proposal to levy the securities transaction tax.
On February 28, 2002, the Sensex tumbled 143 points. The market had opened sedately, with the Sensex moving in a narrow range of 25 points. But the disturbing scenes of the carnage in Godhra, Ahmedabad and other parts of Gujarat affected sentiment on that occasion.
In 2001, however, the Sensex shot up 177 points on Budget day. The Budget turned out to be a bonanza for investors: the FII limit was raised to 49 per cent, the administered interest rates were lowered, as were the surcharge on corporate taxes and the dividend tax.
The biggest Sensex fall on a Budget day took place on February 29, 2000, when the Sensex dipped by over 350 points intra-day but recovered to close with a decline of 294 points. The Budget had proposed the imposition of a tax on exports, a hike in corporate and mutual fund dividend tax rates to 20 per cent and a higher surcharge on non-corporate assessees.
In the previous year, however, the Sensex shot up by 166 points. Yashwant Sinha's Budget bailed out the ailing Unit Trust of India.
Yet the record for an upswing in the Sensex on Budget day is held by Chidambaram's dream Budget. On February 28, 1997, the Sensex shot up by 224 points. Stock prices spiralled upwards in two hours of hectic post-Budget buying.
Chidambaram had announced sharp cuts in corporate and personal income-tax rates, restructured the minimum alternate tax regime and unveiled a voluntary disclosure scheme. Will Chidambaram do an encore when he presents his Budget on Monday and will the Sensex soar again? Wait for a few more hours for the answer.