' Post-budget any bad news will see a selloff of shares,' says Ramesh Shrichand Damani.
chengise : hi ramesh, I am an NRI in Mexico and am up at 5.30 in the morning to catch your gurukul which has benefited me, both, by way of education and money. My question is what makes you so bullish on Tata Elxsi, I find it overpriced-what kind of growth do you anticipate?
Ramesh S Damani : Thanks for getting up so early. Elxsi is a growth stock with a handsome yield. That is a very rare combo. Of course mgmt has to deliver, but its prospects look good.
vikas2 : UB Hodling: Last time you said there should be one time re-rating as it does not have operating business. Could u explain it again. Is Real estate boom has positively impacted this co. or not
Ramesh S Damani : that is for you to decide. I don't have the date, but it should be in the next few weeks. I am viewing it as an investment idea.
chengise : Ramesh : Has Balaji found a bottom yet, I am inclined to average down as I find the risk reward in our favour. I know you are bullish on it.
Ramesh S Damani : we will know that after Q1 results.
baracuda : Results of mcdowell have been good. Do yu finally see growth coming in? It has an EPS close to 5, they could have hiked div to rs 3, high molasses and ethyl alcohol prices may affect bottomline next year
Ramesh S Damani : it is not an earnings story as I have told. it is one of the absurd valuations.
tombay : SIR we had missed you last week.....
Ramesh S Damani : sorry, I was in another meeting.
Ram : Good Evening Ramesh, What's your opinion on TV18. The company seems to be ok, but its price seems to be more volatile than others. Is there any specific reasons.
Ramesh S Damani : Co. is doing well but still short of earnings. it has a good future, but one has to wait.
mayankgupta : what is your view on goldiam? Are you still bullish on it?
Ramesh S Damani : yes.
baracuda : how does a presumptive tax affect macmillan, even if it grows at just 30% for the next 2 years this stock is still cheap can one add
Ramesh S Damani : i would not worry about it. turnover tax is more worrying for the market.
sudhir : sir great to see yu again. What's your feeling about the general direction of the markets , before & after budget
Ramesh S Damani : market seems to lack triggers, post-budget. bad news will see a selloff.
vikas3 : Harbin story came in our pink newspaper. Everybody read it and of course Mallya must have also read it. Don't u think it is high time even for biggies to think about Indian liquor leader and mcdowell is obvious choice.
Ramesh S Damani : it will happen. Unfortunately I am not sure quite when.
sudhir : sir what are your projected earnings per share for macmillan for fy05& fy06. just a projection
Ramesh S Damani : they should do between Rs 25-30 for fy dec 04.
tombay : sir I had observed that many chat people here are not convinced with your bull market conviction I thnk that they have either invested at higher price or technical analylist according technicals we are in bear market ? what you think about those people who are trying to change your mind ???? what you think about them.....
Ramesh S Damani : calling markets is an art, not a science. It is tough under any circumstances so they are entitled to their views. they may also be right, Only time can tell.
baracuda : are yu bullish on the animation industry in India? does india have the manpower to do animation I thought the koreans and the japanese were leaders in it, so do yu see both crest communications and tata elxsi doing well in a fledgling industry?
Ramesh S Damani : i think so, value proposition is great and they are both moving up the scale.
kamal1 : Macmillan : Last chat u said if it makes Rs 45 in next 2 yrs. but right now its EPS is just 19 , do u think it is ready for explosive growth. Even if we assume that it grows 30-35% next 2 yrs. its EPS would be 30-32 and the PE 15 can take it to 500 . Am I right
Ramesh S Damani : if bpo grows at 50% it could get there. margins are still 50%, however mgmt must push hard.
Ram : I am not a very tech savvy guy. Is there a registration or something to get my questions to reach Mr.Ramesh. I have tried to post questions over the last 4 weeks(x last week) but never had a response.
Ramesh S Damani : sorry, no registration, but I can answer only a few questions. I will try to answer next time.
sudhir : sir last time you asked me to come with a list of shares to hold 10 years down the line. mcdowell surely one. which one from the following are u optimistic to generate 10 times return: kale, nelco, crest , macmillan, tata honey, sundaram finance, balaji tele. these are all your stocks
Ramesh S Damani : i would include sundaram finace in the list. the rest are too speculative for that kind of list. look at something like fmcg, and tobacoo stocks. tech can fluctuate.
ayanshah : Have you visited or talked with Macmilan management recently?? You confident of company on its way to achieve overall 25-30% growth for this( dec. 04)and next year with current profit margins???
Ramesh S Damani : at the AGM they felt 40% growth in bpo with margins intact. they should be able to do a little better.
chengise : Ramesh: I have a sizeable investment in Bharti Tele, is the growth story still on, I find the declining ARPU bit concerning but the growth a succour, are you still buying ?
Ramesh S Damani : not really, it is expensive at this point.
chanchal : sir your views now on Balaji any downward rating??/
Ramesh S Damani : no, the indian broadcast market cannot be so cheap.
baracuda : kale has launched a new cargo software package and have got an order from continental for their ticketing software do yu still like the stock
Ramesh S Damani : yes, these are young co trying to find a foot.
vikas3 : Balaji : We know we can't time the market but when we know that Balaji was suppose to have flat year 04 then why did we buy Balaji at 90+ specially when general market was also falling. Don't you think we should have waited for q4 or q1 of this year . By the way management is expecting just 5-10% topline growth with marginal increase in bottomline. Why are u so excited
Ramesh S Damani : i first put a buy on balaji around 60 and remained bullish on it, I have realised timing the market is not my strong suit, you should buy value when you see it.
sudhir : sir do you still consider colgate as a contrarian play even in the wake of p&g launching its version in indian markets
Ramesh S Damani : yes.
sudhir : sir talking about tobacco how does godfrey philp figure. is it a screaming buy & what about gtc industries. it could be a multibagger in the making
Ramesh S Damani : i own godfrey, gtc. I am not sure.
CHARUDATT : sir,biocon today is expensive than infy and gillette . is it worth investing at rs 500 ? will its np grow at say 30 % per annum over next 2-3 years
Ramesh S Damani : market opinion is divided on this. I would wait.
vikas3 : We want to update ourselves on Zodiac . R U still holding / adding. Any new development in textile u would like to share
Ramesh S Damani : nothing new.
sudhir : sir if you think you genuinely want to help the investors at large I think you come up with a certain fund like warren buffet and do the compounding for us. we all would be very thankful to you . I do not understand the logic of you not taking the initiative.
Ramesh S Damani : by studying warren buffett we don't become warren buffett. I don't think we should compare anyone to the master.
rajesh : Sir, your view on E-serve, one should tender shares or otherwise.
Ramesh S Damani : we should tender, but I think we could get a price north of 900.
kamal1 : Is UB Beer ( 83 last price ) is also your core holding along with Mcdowell / Macmillan and Sunadram
Ramesh S Damani : yes.
chanchal : sir sir please guide me on this tata telecom should I tender for buy back at 220/ 1 st july is last date pleeeeease guide me
Ramesh S Damani : generally it is better to tender. ou sometimes get it back cheaper later on. However it is a difficult decision.
vikas3 : Would you prefer Sundaram over Macmillan over 3 yrs time frame
Ramesh S Damani : i would keep both but if I had to choose maybe sundaram.
kamal1 : Agriculture stocks : please suggest 3 good stocks if u have taken any position
Ramesh S Damani : i trade in them but take a look at KSB pumps, sygenta, VST tiller or swaraj engines.
HelloRDaman : is Kingfisher a different stock than UB holdings... it is priced at around 40 today
Ramesh S Damani : no, just name changed to UB Holding.
novice : sir how about financial technologies? They own the Multi Commodity Exchange...with commodities trading picking up in India MCX could be huge. Do you think there's any truth in this observation?
Ramesh S Damani : good business model but activity has to pick up yet in volume for mcx.
bagri : , ramesh, lot of problems we faced in last few months even the stocks gone for a rerating - up or down lot of views have changed. In this scenario still some stocks will be there where the valuations will be compelling with the growth they can have. Can u name the stocks which compel u even in this market as a investment bet.
Ramesh S Damani : i would go easy on psu stocks, but some tech stocks and media stocks could offer value. like I said elixsi offers growth and yield a rare combo.
ayanshah : Sir do you find market tanking heavily if turnover tax instead of capital gain tax is introduced??
Ramesh S Damani : it is possible.
Ram : Ramesh, out of Satyam,Canara Bank,Tata Elxsi, Arvind Mills, TV18, Balaji Tele which ones can be held past the coming budget. Is there any one to book profit b4 budget.
Ramesh S Damani : i think elixsi, balaji are good., satyam, can bank not sure for invt.
vikas3 : Sundaram : What makes you so excited about its prospectus that u can call it multibagger in long run
Ramesh S Damani : they have 3 subsidiaries and bpo. 3 subsidiaries are amc, ins and home finance. strong name. this will compund over time.
sanujkadavil : I am late little but, Calpers looking to raise investment in Asian real estate. Also says Indian property business is attractive. Do you think they will consider ub holdings, bata, Bombay dyeing . Because they have huge interest in property development
Ramesh S Damani : they could but they want direct investment, not through stocks.
ayanshah : Sir According to Economic Times talks between Promoters of Gati and DHL have fallen through..Do you think stock is languishing in absence of such a trigger or you find management capable of taking the company to global scale in time to come??
Ramesh S Damani : i doubt it. they should tie up to enhance value. they would get a good valuation too.
VA VAITHI : what about ongc purchased thro' ipo and after budget any change of raise in the stock of ongc? Pls reply sir.
Ramesh S Damani : stock is suffering from overhand, so it may be difficult unless oil prices go crazy.
krish : Mr. Damani, why is J&k bank is sinking. It has excellenat inherent value. Please advice
Ramesh S Damani : i am not sure why J&K is falling. mgmt had promised a strategic buyer and nothing has come of it. thanks all, for joining. See you next week. Bye.