The United States of America is likely to outsource nearly 10-20 per cent of its IT jobs during the 5-10 years.
While that is a significant amount, its not an 'all-or-nothing' scenario, and its far less than the amount of textile, manufacturing and automobile-related jobs that moved offshore in the 1970s, according to Ed Yourdon, director and member of the board, iGate Global Solutions said.
Yourdon was speaking mediapersons on the global IT and outsourcing scenario and the trends in offshoring during his recent visit.
"Offshoring to India is going to continue growing significantly for the next several years. There may be occasional failures and backlash/protectionist movements, but the overall trend will be a steady one, especially as more large companies gain experience with the process of outsourcing, and also as IT and telecommunication technologies continue to improve," Yourdon said.
Yourdon stated that Americans have been vaguely aware of the IT outsourcing phenomenon for several years, but it did not represent much of a threat during the 1990s because of the overall growth in the IT industry.
"For the past few years, there have actually been reduced IT budgets and cutbacks in IT staff. The CIOs and IT managers have been aggressive about looking for ways to cut costs. As a result of outsourcing, the US-based programmers have become aware that their own jobs are at risk, this phenomenon can be extended to other knowledge-intensive industries. However, they have not yet fully appreciated the scope of this phenomenon," Yourdon added.
While IT has been the 'low-hanging fruit' for outsourcing so far, Yourdon said that it is too early to tell which of the various other knowledge-intensive industries will be the next low-hanging fruit.
On software development, Yourdon said that two areas that are yet to be widely deployed, namely, web services and wireless/ubiquitous computing, will be the next big thing.
"As the global economy gradually emerges from the recession of the last few years, I think we will see a tremendous growth in products, services and applications in this area."
He said that that "next big thing" in the IT sector may be introduced in a marketplace that is not on our "radar screen"
"We can also expect to see innovation in cities like Hyderabad, Chennai and Pune, just as Americans expect to see innovation taking place in Boston and Austin, Texas and Redmond, Washington," concluded Yourdon.