Monsoon's delay not to hit crops: Analysts

The arrival of monsoon rains a few days behind schedule will not hit the country's crop output as there is no standing crop but it will delay sowing operations, analysts said on Friday.

They said rice, oilseeds, cotton and other crops would not be affected if the rains were timely and evenly distributed across the country.

The monsoon arrived in the northeast on Thursday and is expected to hit the southern coast by Monday, more than a week behind its normal date of June 1, a weather official said.

"Though the onset is delayed, the ultimate size of the crop will depend on the distribution of rains," said G Chandrasekhar, commodities editor with Hindu Business Line newspaper.

He said transplanting of rice across the country and sowing of oilseeds in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh would be delayed by nearly 10 days.

Economists said the delay would not hurt the farm sector if the spread of the rains across the country was good.

Last year, the monsoon arrived on the southern coast on schedule but July, a vital month for farmers, was dry, resulting in the country's worst drought in 15 years. Poors rains damaged oilseed and grain crops in the western and central regions.

"It (monsoon) is a bit late. Typically, sowing can take place a week late. But when the rains begin they should be spread properly," said M R Madhavan, head of research at the Bank of America.

"If the rains follow the usual pattern then I don't see much of a problem."

The June-September southwest monsoon is the lifeline of India's farm-dependent economy. Agriculture, which accounts for about a quarter of gross domestic product, heavily depends on the timely arrival and distribution of monsoon rains.

A good monsoon boosts farms incomes and generates demand for industrial goods in rural areas where most of India's one billion people live.

Weather officials said the delay in the monsoon would not have a bearing on the amount of rainfall this year, which is forecast to be near normal.