Mayawati will be shocked on May 16

Mayawati has a committed Dalit vote bank. Taking their loyalty for granted, she has, without qualms, commoditised their votes.

The Dalits reposed blind faith in her till 2007. Add to that mass base, the large chunk of Brahmin votes.

By feigning to have Brahmin interests at heart, this Dalit leader has tried to hoodwink the opportunistic UP pandits. Mutual vested interests seem to have brought them temporarily together.

The Muslims of UP are a bewildered lot. The stigma of being labeled 'terrorists' and Inter Services Intelligence agents cradled in Azamgarh is painful to those who are patriotic Indian Muslims. Wishing to regain credibility and respectability, they may side with Mayawati.

Therefore, a sizable chunk of tactical Muslim votes can also go to Mayawati.

Thus, Mayawati and her Dalit voters, coupled with influential Brahmin votes as also the Muslim masses's votes could all combine to make her an invincible player.

Mayawati, with such a formidable backing could sweep the UP polls. Just in the same lucky manner as she did in the 2007 assembly polls.

Will Mayawati's dream of becoming the prime minister of India fructify this time?

Good heavens, no!

Dictators and elections, somehow, do not gel. Nowadays, this is the 'Catch-22' situation for Mayawati. Dictators hate inconvenient opponents.

Advising Mayawati is a foolhardy venture which none in UP dares to undertake. Even well-meaning and concerned lips are sealed discreetly.

Reporters dare not ask her any questions. Monologue and dictation sessions are misleadingly called press conferences. The smarter ones skip them, preferring to collect her statement from their television screens.

Proximity is forbidden. Her instinctive insecurity and the usual 'security reasons' have literally cut her off from the public and well-wishers. Access to Mayawati is impossible. Senior bureaucrats are also unable to meet her.

Even the intimate coterie that surrounds her is, internally, in a shambles. Some are not even on talking terms.

Bureaucrats -- the babus, chaprasis as well as the senior IAS officers are all treated alike -- most contemptuously -- by Mayawati. Sane governance is absent. Development in UP is hefty-commission-inspired, sans vision.

Squandering thousands of crores of precious funds on building Utopian parks and installing elephant statues for posterity has crossed all tolerable limits. Statues depicting 'Mayawati and her purse' have sent negative messages all over.

Frustrated Dalits versus the disproportionate Brahmin clout in the corrupt corridors of power causes acute Dalit heartburn.

Kanshi Ram's hardcore BAMCEF (All India Backward and Minority Employees Federation), which had fondly cradled her during her political infancy, is completely disillusioned and disgusted with her, and would like to see her ousted from power.

The Muslims, who earlier supported Mayawati, have become wary and suspicious of her unreliable nature. They have a growing apprehension that, ultimately, Mayawati will ditch them and join the Bharatiya Janata Party camp.

Today, she is hated by her own community. Except for the 'chamars' of her community, other Dalits like the 'dhobis', 'khatiks', 'bhangis', 'paasis' despise her.

Her ministers are a pathetic lot. The Bahujan Samaj Party MLAs are no better. They have been unable to deliver any good developmental projects in their constituencies. Public abuse is all that the ministers/MLAs are showered with.

The Lucknow secretariat is a very reliable barometer that is always hyper-sensitive to the public mood all over UP. Though she has three more years in power, Mayawati has been given their 'thumbs down'! She has earned the babus's ire.

Mayawati has wantonly frittered away her phenomenal goodwill of 2007.

Indira Gandhi was taught a harsh lesson in 1977. She had misjudged the public mood and was doomed. Mayawati shall, also, be 'educated' and 'taught a lesson' on May 16.

There is no takth (throne) for Maya this time. The takhta (guillotine) looms large this time.

Her strength is depleting with each phase in the election. Her tally shall slip further down from the current mid-twenties into the teens by May 16.

Once that happens, this ambitious dictator shall have to console herself as the 'Mallika-e-Uttar Pradesh'!