S Ramesh, special correspondent of Thuglaq, the Tamil satirical magazine edited by Cho Ramaswamy, spearheaded an election survey by the magazine in Tamil Nadu.
Here, he talks about the methodology and findings of the survey. He says that most surveys by Thuglaq have been more or less on the mark.
Random survey
We covered 100 constituencies in Tamil Nadu. We meet people at various places in all constituencies. The places include 2-3 villages and the main town. But in towns also, we make it a point to meet the villagers. This can be called a random survey.
Complete coverage: The Tamil Nadu assembly election 2006
We give them a questionnaire with all parties listed. The questionnaire is put in a box after they tick the answers. We also interact with groups of around 10 or more people. We ask them questions like, what they think about the present government, the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham's poll promises, if they are going to vote for actor Vijayakanth, why do they prefer him, and for whom did they vote earlier.
The Vijayakanth factor
We have found that Vijayakanth would affect the Pattali Makkal Katchi and the DMK in the northern pockets. I must mention that PMK's vote share got eroded last time itself. In the southern and western districts, Vijayakanth will disturb the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham. People look at Vijayakanth as a new face and a better alternative to the other two Dravidian parties. It is surprising to see the kind of support he has amassed everywhere. I feel after the election, the Congress or the Dravidian parties may try to woo him. The Congress many think of aligning with Vijayakanth as an alternative to the Dravidian parties in future.
Diary: Trying to catch Jayalalithaa
No anti- incumbency
We did not see any anti-incumbency against J Jayalalithaa. What she is getting is a positive vote. At many places, people appreciate the work done by the government during the floods. At Cuddalore and other coastal areas, people appreciate the tsunami relief work. In some places, people appreciate her strong action on any issue. There was a strong feeling everywhere that rowdyism was totally curbed under Jayalalithaa. They also appreciated the severe action taken against moneylenders by the government.
Be a citizen election reporter
We also found that there were not many takers for the DMK's poll promises apart from the DMK party workers. They say that it's all an election gimmick. We found that a sizeable section of those who voted for the DMK front in the parliamentary elections now prefer Jayalalithaa. At that time, they were totally against Jayalalitha. In certain pockets, people felt that K Karunanidhi is trying to project his family, not only his son Stalin but nephew Dyaanidhi Maran too.
Vaiko
Vaiko's presence in the AIADMK alliance has not made a great impact. His campaign is attracting a lot of crowds and it has given a morale boost to the AIADMK cadres. That is because Jayalalithaa addresses only roadside meetings but Vaiko addresses both roadside and public meetings. While Jayalalithaa's speeches highlight her performance, Vaiko is aggressive and the AIADMK cadres seem to enjoy his speeches.
Dynasties hold sway in Tamil Nadu
Prediction
From our survey, we found that the AIADMK front may get 60 percent of the seats. We didn't see any anti-incumbency anywhere in Tamil Nadu. Only if there is anti-incumbency, you can say it is a close call.
The major sufferer of this election probably will be the PMK because people supporting Vijayakanth in the northern belt had voted for the PMK in the last election. There is erosion in the vote share of the Congress. But we find that the AIADMK has become a stronger party than it was during the MGR days. AIADMK has more cadres now. To sum up, it is advantage Jayalalithaa.