The India Shining campaign is poised to contribute substantially to the Bharatiya Janata Party's tally in the coming general election, according to the Intelligence Bureau.
A top IB official told rediff.com that the findings were the result of fieldwork by IB agents throughout the country during the last four weeks. It submitted its report to the central government on Monday.
The reports indicates that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance coalition could win 275 to 300 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress may have to be satisfied with 115 seats.
The report, details of which were made available to this correspondent, says the Opposition has so far failed to cause any dent in the 'Indian Shining' campaign and counter the 'feel good factor' that the BJP had highlighted. The Opposition parties have given the NDA a distinct electoral advantage by failing to put up a common front.
What the reports says about some major states:
Uttar Pradesh: The mass contact programmes by Congress president Sonia Gandhi and the subtle campaigning by her children, Priyanka Vadra and Rahul Gandhi, are unlikely to improve the party's prospects. It will trail the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party. The BJP is expected to win 50 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP.
BSP leader Mayawati is hesitant to enter into an electoral alliance with the Congress. Chiefly, she is convinced that while the Congress votes are transferable to the BSP, the latter's votes are not transferred to the Congress. Secondly, she does not want her Dalit votes to go to the Congress fearing it may set a precedent.
Thirdly, she fears the BJP would retaliate by resurrecting the corruption cases against her, in connection with the Taj Corridor scam.
Significantly, during her recent luncheon with mediapersons, Sonia Gandhi hinted that the BSP is under pressure from the BJP not to ally with the Congress.
In case the BSP and Congress enter into an alliance, the IB report says Mayawati would concede not more that 20 seats to the Congress.
Bihar: Laloo Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal is unwilling to concede more than five parliamentary seats to the Congress, its ally in the state. Laloo has been exhorting his Yadav community to vote for the RJD in large numbers and put him in a position to become the prime minister.
Andhra Pradesh: The Congress has an uphill task at hand as the Telugu Desam Party, an NDA ally, has improved its image and is on a strong wicket.
Madhya Pradesh: The Congress will be routed as the BJP has further consolidated its presence after its triumph in the assembly election last December.
Chhattisgarh: The BJP will repeat its assembly election triumph.
Rajasthan: The Congress may win half-a-dozen seats.
Gujarat: Chief Minister Narendra Modi will lead the BJP to another victory, assisted by the factionalism in the state Congress party. While the BJP is experiencing a resurgence, the Congress is demoralized by the infighting between its top leaders, Madhavsinh Solanki and Shankarsinh Vaghela.
But the Congress party is clearly unimpressed by the IB assessment. "There are three stories quoting IB sources in circulation. This is an old game of quoting the IB as source and it has now become redundant. This is yet another attempt to spread the message of 'feel good' factor being unleashed on this country," All India Congress Committee media secretary Tom Vadakkan told rediff.com