Will India Pick Ashwin For Final?

After six weeks of riveting cricketing action, World Cup 2023 has got the final it deserves -- a dream clash between India and Australia.

India proved their superiority in white ball cricket as they racked up 10 wins in a row to storm into the final, while Australia have bounced back after a horror start with eight wins in succession to make it to Sunday's final.

India have not put a foot wrong in the entire World Cup and have romped their way past every opponent. Whether it is their batting or bowling, none of the opposition teams have so far been able to find a chink in the all-conquering Indian line-up who are the hot favourites for their third ODI World title.

Even the injury withdrawal of all-rounder Hardik Pandya has not impacted the Indians. If anything it has only made them stronger as it paved the way for inclusion of Mohammed Shami who has taken the World Cup with a tournament high of 23 wickets from just six games, which includes three five-wicket hauls and one four-wicket haul.

With their batting and bowling firing on all cylinders, this is the perfect opportunity for India to extract revenge against Australia for the thrashing they had got in the 2003 World Cup final.

WILL SPIN WORK AGAINST AUSTRALIA?

India will also take a lot of learning from their league stage victory against Australia in Chennai last month. The visitors had crumbled against spin to be bowled out for 199, before India had a few nervy moments of their own, collapsing to 2/3 against the pacers, but they chased down the runs easily in 41.2 overs.

Australia also struggled against South Africa's spinners Keshav Maharaj, Tabraiz Shamsi and Aiden Markram in the semi-final as they nearly messed up an easy run chase of 213 on a turning pitch at the Eden Gardens.

The South African spin trio combined bowled 28 overs in which they took 4/89 as Australia collapsed from 106/2 in the 15th over to 137/5 in the 24th over.

Even if India are keen to continue with the winning combination, there could be a temptation to bring in Ravichandran Ashwin as the third spinner if the pitch does suit the spinners.

But will India risk suddenly doing away with their winning formula of five specialist bowlers -- three pacers and two spinners -- in a big final?

India will also keep in mind the risk of playing with only five main bowlers as Australia could easily target one of their spinners or pacers and force them to rethink their gameplan.

The biggest drawback for India is that they don't have a decent part-time bowler to call upon to bowl a few overs. Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma did take a wicket each against The Netherlands but trying them out against a powerful batting line-up like Australia could backfire big time.

Even if the pitch is dry and expected to spin from the start, India are likely to stick with their five bowler strategy but they will seriously spend a lot of time thinking about Ashwin.

Ashwin opening the bowling against the two left-handed openers David Warner and Travis Head is a real possibility, both of whom fell to spin in the semi-final against South Africa.

The dangerous Glenn Maxwell has fallen to left-arm spinners, including Kuldeep Yadav, twice in the World Cup already. Their batting mainstay Steve Smith has also fallen to spin five times in 10 innings in this tournament.

So playing three spinners is certainly one of the options against Australia.

WHO WILL ASHWIN REPLACE IF PICKED?

The bigger question for India is if they go in with Ashwin is whom to leave out.

India certainly can't think of including two just fast bowlers as it will weaken their attack having just two pacers to fall back on.

The trio of Mohammed Shami (23 wickets), Jasprit Bumrah (18) and Mohammed Siraj (13) have picked 54 wickets between them and have ripped apart almost every batting line-up.

There could be an option of playing one batter less with Ashwin replacing Suryakumar Yadav. But that move too is fraught with danger as it weakens their batting considerably.

So far, the consistent showing from their top five batters has ensured that India hasn't really needed to depend on Suryakumar but if a situation arises when things don't go well in the middle overs, they will need a strong finisher in the death overs.

The left-arm spin twins Ravindra Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav, who have combined taken 31 wickets in the World Cup, have not India made feel the absence of a third spinner. They certainly are capable of wrecking the Australian batting line-up, who are certainly not looking that confident against spin.

AUSTRALIA RELY ON PACE

Australia's bowling seems to be coming together quite nicely. The pace trio of Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins played a decisive role with the ball against South Africa, taking eight wickets.

Starc and Cummins have both taken 13 wickets apiece but both have gone above six runs per over while Hazlewood has been their most effective bowler, bagging 14 wickets at 4.67.

Leg-spinner Adam Zampa has led the way in the league stage with 22 wickets but he went wicketless against South Africa in the semis.

Zampa enjoys a good record against India, with 34 wickets from 22 games, out of which 27 have come in 17 games played in India.

With India having an all right-handed line-up till No 6, he could be a key bowler for Australia in the middle overs.

However, to check India in the middle overs the pacers will need to strike early with the new ball and put India's power-packed batting line-up under pressure.

They could take a lot of learning from their league game in Chennai, when Hazlewood and Starc had reduced India to 2/3 in their league stage encounter. They will need a similar start if they have to quell India's challenge.

Australia will need to find a way to counter Rohit's charge at the top. The India captain has beendevastating with the bat in the Powerplay, with 550 runs at a strike rate of 124.

Another player whom they need to dismiss early is run-machine Virat Kohli. The Indian batting maestro, who got a world record 50th ODI century in the semis, has looked in the form of his life with 711 runs in 10 games at an average of 101.

Once he gets off to a start he is hard to dislodge as he has shown by going past the 50 run mark in eight out of 10 games played so far.

Shubman Gill missed out on a century in the semis after he was forced to retire with cramps as he stroked a quickfire 80.

Shreyas Iyer's short ball woes have been long forgotten. The Mumbai batter's positive approach has been quite decisive in the middle overs. With scores of 82, 77, 128 not out and 105 in his last four innings, Iyer could the one who will take on the Australian spinners in the middle overs.

K L Rahul has been been quite dependable at No 5, playing the role of an anchor and aggressor at the end with the same fluency, and has also been quite assured with the gloves.

On the other hand, Australia have been heavily dependent on veteran David Warner, who has been their leading run-scorer with 528 runs at a strike rate of 107, with two fifties and as many centuries.

Travis Head is also dangerous at the top, having made 192 runs in five games at a strike rate of 139, while Mitchell Marsh (426 runs) will be hard to stop if he gets going.

Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne are good players of spin and Sunday's final could be the day they finally make their mark in this tournament.

Australia's biggest plus point is their long batting line-up with the dangerous Glenn Maxwell at 6 followed by Josh Inglis, while Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc are quite handy with the bat.

Overall, Australia enjoys a superior record against India in ODI World Cups, having won eight out of 13 matches played so far. They have emerged victorious in two of the three knockout games played, winning the 2003 World Cup final and the semi-final in 2015, while India claimed victory in the quarter-finals in 2011.

There is nothing to choose between the two teams as far as their recent records are compared. This year, Australia played two three-match ODI series in India with both teams winning one each.

However, India's incredible run in the World Cup has titled the scales in their favour as they look set to win their third ODI World Cup. But Australia will be a completely different challenge in the final.

The likes of Warner, Smith, Maxwell, Starc and Hazlewood, who were part of Australia's World Cup winning team in 2015, know what it takes to succeed in the big final.

Australia are the team who believes in rising to the occasion, having laid their hands on the ODI World Cup trophy five times. Two-time champions India have won not a ICC trophy across formats in the last 10 years and it is high time they break that drought!

Probable XI: Rohit Sharma (captain), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, K L Rahul (wicket-keeper), Suryakumar Yadav, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj.

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• World Cup 2023