With the last two matches of IPL 2009's first phase drawing to a close on Thursday, Yuvraj Singh's Kings XI Punjab will be hoping Bangalore Royal Challengers (BRC) lose big to the Deccan Chargers in the second match at SuperSport Park, Centurion.
What are the various possibilities?
An abandoned match:
In the unlikely case the match is called off without a ball being bowled, both teams will finish in the top four with 15 points. The Chargers will be at third place because of their better Nett Run Rate going into the match.
The Royal Challengers win:
Bangalore will straightaway finish at third place on 16 points and will meet the Chennai SuperKings in the second semi-final at the Wanderer's stadium at Johannesburg on May 23. A BRC victory will avoid the need for any Nett Run Rate calculations, since the Deccan Chargers' NRR is far superior to that of the Kings XI.
Bangalore loses:
If Bangalore were to lose, they will be tied with the Kings XI on 14 points. They will then need to ensure that their defeat is not so large that their Nett Run Rate (currently -0.2526) does not fall below Kings XI's -0.4835.
What are the exact numbers Bangalore needs to keep in mind? And is their task tough? Not at all, as the tables below indicate.
If the Deccan Chargers bat first, Anil Kumble's men need to ensure they do not lose by a margin of more than 75 to 85 runs, depending on what Deccan scores in 20 overs.
If Bangalore bat first, they need to make sure Deccan do not get to the winning target with more than 9 to 10 overs remaining. Here, then, are the details:
Scenario 1: The Deccan Chargers bat first
| Assuming the Deccan Chargers Score (in 20 overs) is in the range | Bangalore's margin of defeat should not exceed | ||
| 76 | to | 91 | 75 |
| 92 | to | 107 | 76 |
| 108 | to | 123 | 77 |
| 124 | to | 138 | 78 |
| 139 | to | 154 | 79 |
| 155 | to | 170 | 80 |
| 171 | to | 186 | 81 |
| 187 | to | 201 | 82 |
| 202 | to | 217 | 83 |
| 218 | to | 233 | 84 |
| 234 | to | 248 | 85 |
Scenario 2: The Royal Challengers bat first
| Assuming Bangalore's Score (in 20 overs) is in the range | Bangalore needs to bowl at least these many overs before the Deccan Chargers reach the winning target | |||
| 20 | to | 53 | 10.4 | overs |
| 54 | to | 81 | 10.5 | |
| 82 | to | 110 | 11 | |
| 111 | to | 140 | 11.1 | |
| 141 | to | 171 | 11.2 | |
| 172 | to | 203 | 11.3 | |
| 204 | to | 236 | 11.4 | |
| 237 | to | 250 | 11.5 | |
It's clear that Bangalore's task is not very tough. But then, stranger things have happened in cricket, and the Challengers better not uncork their sponsors' champagne too soon!