What once looked like a walk in the park for Pakistan to the next stage of the ICC World Twenty20 Championship is now become a tad tougher.
Defeat to the Netherlands on Tuesday, and Younis Khan's men will be forced to take an early flight home.
Even a simple win alone will not suffice for them, as all teams in Group B will be tied on two points each.
The tie-breaker applied will be Nett Run Rate (NRR).
The men in green, with a current negative NRR 2.40, thus need to win big to surpass the Netherlands' NRR of +0.050.
What exactly do the numbers, calculated in precision to the 4th decimal place, say?
Here are the possibilities:
An abandoned match
In the unlikely case the match is called off without a ball being bowled, Pakistan will be out of the tournament with just one point from two games; the Netherlands will have three, and England two.
A Netherlands victory
The 2007 runners-up will be out of the tournament without a point from two games.
Pakistan Win
The calculations get really complicated in a truncated match. Assuming it will be a full 20-over per side game, here is what Pakistan will need to do to finish ahead of the Netherlands on NRR.
Scenario 1: Pakistan bat first
No tables or calculations are needed in this case. Pakistan will need to win by at least 25 runs to make it to the Super Eights stage.
It is clear from the table that the larger the total of the previous event's runner-up, the easier their task of making it to the next stage.
Here are some likely scenarios:
|
Pakistan's Score in 20 overs |
Netherlands are bowled out or restricted to |
Pakistan's NRR |
Netherlands' NRR |
|
250 |
225 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
240 |
215 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
230 |
205 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
220 |
195 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
210 |
185 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
200 |
175 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
190 |
165 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
180 |
155 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
170 |
145 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
160 |
135 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
150 |
125 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
140 |
115 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
130 |
105 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
120 |
95 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
110 |
85 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
100 |
75 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
90 |
65 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
|
80 |
55 |
-0.5750 |
-0.6000 |
Scenario 2: If the Netherlands bat first
If the Netherlands bat first, the men in green will need to reach the victory target with 2.3 to 4.3 overs to spare, depending on the target.
Here are details for every possible Netherlands score:
|
a. If the Netherlands score in the range |
b. Maximum overs Pakistan can take to reach the winning target |
|
36 to 44 |
15.3 |
|
45 to 53 |
15.4 |
|
54 to 62 |
15.5 |
|
63 to 72 |
16.0 |
|
73 to 83 |
16.1 |
|
84 to 95 |
16.2 |
|
96 to 109 |
16.3 |
|
110 to 124 |
16.4 |
|
125 to 140 |
16.5 |
|
141 to 159 |
17.0 |
|
160 to 179 |
17.1 |
|
180 to 203 |
17.2 |
|
204 to 210 |
17.3 |
The table above assumes that Pakistan's winning total will be just one run more than the Netherlands' score. If for example, Pakistan's winning hit is a boundary when only run is required to win, the number of overs to attain the winning target could be a few deliveries less than the figure shown in Column B above.
The Bottomline
The task ahead of Pakistan then is not very tough. The more runs they score, or the lower they restrict the Netherlands to, the easier it will be for them to progress to the next stage.
However, we should remember no one thought the Netherlands could beat England, and the giant-killers from the land of tulips will not be lacking in motivation. After all, the prize is a historic ticket to the Super Eights!
Younis Khan and his men will certainly try their best to lord it over the Netherlands on Tuesday at Lord's!