PVI 43: Eight lessons from the IPL auction

It's interesting to look back at the IPL player auction in February 2008 and see if there are some lessons to learn from an event that shook the cricketing fraternity. These are random thoughts, and appearing in a random order, but influenced by our paisa vasool analysis.

The idea of an 'icon' player didn't work. The icon captain was expected to reinforce local loyalty to the team, but apparently that wasn't necessary, except perhaps with Sourav Ganguly and Kolkata Knight Riders. When asked to lead the Chennai team, M S Dhoni from Ranchi didn't "mind it" at all; poor dear Rahul Dravid, on the other hand, has barely smiled after assuming Bangalore's icon position.

The icon classification forced franchise owners to typically hold back 20-25% of the amount admissible (US$ 5 million) for just one player... but no player can really be worth so much. This becomes evident when we look at the PVI of icon players. Most have a PVI of around 3000, except Virender Sehwag who is below 1500 and Sachin Tendulkar who is well above 3000.

It was unwise to pay too much for single cricketing skills. Pure bowlers and pure batsmen are very unlikely to offer good returns if they are paid more than $500,000 (at 2008 rates). Pure bowler Ishant Sharma ($950,000) currently has a PVI of 5557. Even R P Singh ($875,000), who's at the moment wearing the purple cap with 15 wickets, has a PVI of 2841. Pure batsman Robin Uthappa ($800,000) has a PVI of 2484, Mohammed Kaif and Manoj Tiwary have PVIs respectively of 6181 and 7114.

It is of course possible for single skill cricketers to have sufficiently low PVIs; but that needs exceptional performance. IPL's best batsman, Gautam Gambhir ($725,000), has a PVI of 1145 although he offers only one skill. Rohit Sharma ($750,000) has a PVI of 1491. Pure bowler S Sreesanth ($625,000), with his 13 wickets - and all those tears - has a reasonable PVI of 2210.

Indian players cost more than foreign players for comparable skills. Why would one pay Yusuf Pathan $550,000 and Matthew Hayden only $375,000? This is puzzling till one realizes that every team must have seven Indian players. India probably has 20 top-notch T20 players, and there are eight teams competing for this scarce resource! So Indians naturally cost more. Exactly the opposite argument works for foreign players: fewer foreign players are required, and there is a larger pool to choose from.

Wicket-keepers are not so valuable in T20. In the last decade, coinciding with the explosive appearance of Adam Gilchrist, it has become fashionable to say that wicket-keepers too are 'all-rounders'. In test matches, and even in ODI cricket, a good wicket-keeper batsman indeed allows the team to include an extra bowler or batsman. But in T20 cricket, the wicket-keeper's role - and value - is vastly diminished; that's why we've seen so many irregulars donning the gloves in the IPL. At the IPL auction, wicket-keepers commanded higher prices - perhaps undeservedly. M S Dhoni ($1,500,000) has a PVI of 3238, Dinesh Karthik ($525,000) is 3280, Kumar Sangakkara ($700,000) is 1861, Mark Boucher ($450,000)'s PVI is 1636, and Adam Gilchrist ($700,000) is 1382. The message appears to be: forget their wicket-keeping, just pick them for their batting.

Bowling all-rounders might be more valuable than batting all-rounders. The performance of two South African all-rounders illustrates this very well: Shaun Pollock ($550,000), a bowling all-rounder, has a PVI of 1126 while his compatriot Jacques Kallis ($900,000), a batting all-rounder, has a PVI of 4746. Shahid Afridi ($675,000) has a PVI of 1803 while his captain Shoaib Malik ($500,000) has a PVI of 4658. Irfan Pathan ($925,000) with a PVI of 1716 offers more value than Sourav Ganguly ($1,092,500) with a PVI of 2781. Sanath Jayasuriya ($975,000) is however a glaring exception with a PVI of 1353.

Likely match-winners were paid more. Matches are won either by assembling a winning combination of talented, hard-working and consistent performers, or by explosive performers who overwhelm the opposition if it's their day. At the IPL auction, the potentially explosive match-winners fetched higher prices: M S Dhoni ($1,500,000), Yuvraj Singh ($1,063,750), Virender Sehwag ($833,750) and Robin Uthappa ($800,000) from India, Andrew Symonds ($1,350,000), Brett Lee ($900,000) and Adam Gilchrist ($700,000) from Australia, and Sanath Jayasuriya ($975,000), Chris Gayle ($800,000), Kumar Sangakkara ($700,000) and Shahid Afridi ($675,000). Only Jayasuriya, Gilchrist and Sehwag have so far single-handedly won matches for their teams. The PVI of most of these players is between 1500-2000 - suggesting that gambling with such players must be done cautiously. But it still makes sense to gamble with at least one player... he might win you the big prize on the big day.

Young and fit all-rounders offer the greatest value. Shane Watson ($125,000), Dwayne Bravo ($100,000) and Farveez Maharoof ($225,000) have been the three most successful foreign all-rounders in the IPL with PVIs respectively of 138, 259 and 545. There haven't been too many young Indian all-rounders (although a lot of young bowlers have surfaced), but Laxmi Ratan Shukla and Abhishek Nayar, costing only about $30,000 but with PVIs of 102 and 113, certainly offer evidence in support of this hypothesis.

Gamble on youth, and on Australians. The first 12-15 names on the list of players offering the best paisa vasool terms (lowest PVI) are of young Indians we had never heard of: Ashok Dinda, Manpreet Gony, Dhawal Kulkarni, Swapnil Asnodkar, Siddharth Trivedi, Ravindra Jadeja and Yo Mahesh. They have PVI values below 150 and have played wonderful supporting roles. It therefore certainly makes sense to scout the country for such virgin talent.

Australian players dominated the auction and one can now appreciate the reasons. Australia has the machinery to nurture innate talent, and Australian players come in with a superlative work ethic. One of our analysis pieces on Rediff also confirmed that Australians have performed at least twice as well as cricketers from other foreign countries.

The first IPL auction was mad, chaotic and amusing. But one suspects that the lessons learned in IPL 2008 will lead to more rational selections for IPL 2009. Two factors will have a major bearing next year: Will the cap of US$ 5 million be lifted, and allowed to become unequal? Will the number of foreign players in the playing 11 be increased from 4 to 5? One possibility that the IPL could consider is something that didn't work out in ODI cricket: allow teams of 12, with the proviso that only 7 Indians and 4 foreigners figure at any time in the playing 11 - this will offer a backdoor entry to that fifth foreign player.

Details

The tables below list the players with the highest most valuable player index (MVPI) and the lowest paisa vasool index (PVI) at the end of IPL's match 43.

DD:  Delhi Daredevils | CSK: Chennai Super Kings | DC: Deccan Chargers | BRC: Bangalore Royal Challengers | RR: Rajasthan Royals | KKR: Kolkata Knight Riders | KXI: Kings XI Punjab | MI: Mumbai Indians

M: Matches played | MVPI: Most valuable player index | Money offered; some estimates may be incorrect! | MA: Matches available | MF: Fraction of money earned so far | PVI: Paisa vasool index; dollars paid for every run equivalent scored

Table 2: IPL's most valuable players (after 43 matches; as on 20 May 2008, 4 pm)

Runs (scored) | Balls (taken) | Bat-pts: Batting points | | Rc: Runs conceded | Bb: Balls bowled | W: Wickets taken | Bowl-pts: Bowling points | Ct/St: Catches taken / Stumpings | Run outs (participated) | Field-pts: fielding points | M: Matches played | Total (points)  = sum of batting, bowling and fielding points | *Run outs are counted as 1 (wicket) for a direct hit, and 0.5 (wicket) if the fielder is an equal participant in a run out dismissal