Growth rate of exports has been double the projected rate in the first half, while imports have increased by nine per cent as compared to the projected rate of six per cent.
''The wholesale price index-based inflation rate is currently at less than 3.5 per cent as compared to the projection of five per cent and the real GDP growth in first half of this fiscal is 5.8 per cent as compared to the projection for the full year at 4.8 per cent,'' it said.
The December review pegged the industrial output growth estimates, including construction, mining and power sectors at 6.6-6.7 per cent against September's 5.6 per cent projection; while it revised the services sector growth (excluding construction) by 7.1 per cent against the last review's 6.8 per cent.
The average price level reflecting the producer prices (WPI) is projected to increase by 3.4-3.7 per cent, it said.
''Gross fiscal deficit of the Centre is projected at 5.9 per cent of GDP at market prices against September's forecast of 6.33 per cent,'' NCAER said, adding that it was retaining the forecast of current account deficit of 1.5 per cent of GDP with the exports projected to grow by 15 per cent and imports by 10 per cent.
It projected agricultural output growth between zero and one per cent, against the last review's nil forecast.
On the revised projections related to exchange rate and prices for this fiscal, NCAER forecasted depreciation of the rupee vis-a-vis the US dollar by three per cent (against September's five per cent) and increase in agricultural prices by four per cent (against last review's five per cent).
In terms of export growth, NCAER projected an over 15 per cent growth (in US dollar terms) against September's 8.52 per cent projection, while in imports it forecasted a 10.13 per cent growth against the last review's 6.68 per cent.
On the revised projections in exports and imports, it said, ''These appear to be related to factors such as appreciation of other major currencies relative to the US dollar, better targeting of the markets by the exporters in the case of exports and higher oil prices, demand input from exports and investment demand in the case of imports.
However, the report added, ''The latest forecasts are still subject to uncertainities over the estimates of agricultural output and developing international scenario on oil price and supplies in the context of intensified tension between the US and Iraq.''
Among the key assumptions it retained from the previous forecast, NCAER listed the stagnant agricultural growth, reduction in nominal lending rate in the financial markets by 0.5 percentage points, capital inflows under foreign direct investment by $2 billion and global real GDP increase of 2.5 per cent.
UNI