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Moody's unlikely to revise India rating

May 22, 2004 07:40 IST
Source:PTI

International rating agency Moody's has indicated that it is unlikely to revise India's rating, but prescribed strong measures to curb fiscal deficit for spurring growth during the Congress-led coalition government's regime.

Despite the bloodbath at the bourses before Manmohan Singh's name figured as the Prime Minister-designate, Moody's said the "Baa3" investment grade rating is still secure.

Return of Manmohanomics

It cited strong economic fundamentals as the reason for retaining the rating.

"I don't think anyone should see the apparent change in government in such black and white terms. It could be a repeat of 1999, however, because the NDA was itself very slow to get going on reforms," Moody's analyst Kristin Lindow said.

But Moody's said the announcement by Manmohan Singh's government that it would not privatise PSU oil companies and banks, but at the same time increase spending to boost rural infrastructure could widen the fiscal deficit.

The central government's fiscal deficit had been reined in at 4.8 per cent of GDP in 2003-04 after the huge mop-up of Rs 15,300 crore (Rs 153 billion) from divestment of PSUs, higher revenue collection and stringent expenditure control.

Despite the lower deficit of last fiscal, Lindow said the current budget deficit was not sustainable.

The main challenge before Manmohan Singh's government would be to raise the GDP growth, which would improve income of 260 million poor people.

Moody's continues to remain confident about India's foreign currency rating, despite fears about the pace of reforms and the divestment programme.

Moody's had upgraded India's foreign currency rating to "investment grade" in January.

Source: PTI
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