The latest growth projection of 6.3 per cent this fiscal compares poorly with the over 8.0 per cent during 2003-04.
Though the farm sector was expected to post a negative growth of one per cent, ICRA, painted a rosy picture of the industry and services sectors, which are expected to tick over at 7.6 and 8.8 per cent respectively in 2004-05.
The manufacturing sector is expected to post 8.0 per cent growth, it added. Justifying its stance on the gloomy outlook on agriculture, ICRA said GDP arising from farm activities (including animal husbandry, fishing and forestry) would contract by one per cent in 2004-05.
"It is reasonable to expect kharif crop will be smaller than last year, even if rabi crop does well. On the aggregate some contraction in the overall GDP arising from the sector for the full year is very likely," it said.
"This year, a large part of shortfall in precipitation was in Indo-Gangetic belt, that is otherwise well-watered and irrigated. Hence while an adverse impact of a sub-normal monsoon in inevitable, the magnitude should be milder than (say) in 2000-01," it added.
On the industrial sector, ICRA said a quick look at the statistics available till September "indicates very strong growth in all categories."