A comparison of the direct tax mop-up trend during the first eight months of the financial year with the previous two years' clearly indicate that the net direct tax collection in 2011-12 would be around Rs 5,00,000 crore (Rs 5,000 billion) as against the Budget target of Rs 5,32,651 crore (Rs 5,326.51 billion), according to a senior revenue department official.
"As per the calculations made by the department, at least 50 per cent of the Budget target should have been collected by November. But it is only 44 per cent," he says.
"The realisation made during this period gets doubled in the last four months of the financial year."
The official explains that the gross tax collection till November in the current financial year stood at around Rs 3,05,000 crore (Rs 3,050 billion).
This should get doubled to about Rs 6,10,000 crore (Rs 6,100 billion) so as to meet expectations.
As the refunds in the current financial year is expected to be around Rs 1,05,000 crore (Rs 1,050 billion), net direct tax mop-up would be around Rs 5,05,000 crore (Rs 5,050 billion) in the current scenario, he said.
The official stresses that the Central Board of Direct Taxes is trying its 'level best' to meet the Budget target of Rs 5,32,651 crore (Rs 5,326.51 billion), but the current trend is 'clearly hinting' towards a shortfall of Rs 25,000 crore (Rs 250 billion).
The net direct tax realisation during April-November last year was at Rs 2,16,628 crore (Rs 2,166.28 billion).
The figure meant that authorities had crossed 50 per cent of the Budget target of Rs 4,30,000 crore (Rs 4,300 billion).
As for 2009-10, the net direct tax mop-up in the pertinent period was at Rs 1,83,822 crore (Rs 1,838.22 billion); this was also around half the Budget target of Rs 3,70,000 crore (Rs 3,700 billion).
In the current financial year, however, it has been Rs 2,35,333 crore (Rs 2,353.33 billion), which is 44.2 per cent of the Budget target of Rs 5,32,651 crore (Rs 5,326.51 billion).
The refunds during April-November have been close to Rs 70,000 crore (Rs 700 billion).
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