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NCAER pegs GDP growth at 8.2%

November 09, 2006 20:11 IST
Source:PTI
Economic think tank NCAER fears that the Planning Commission's ambitious nine per cent growth target for the 11th plan may not be achievable.

NCAER said, going by analysis, the average annual growth during the five-plan period of 2007-12 would be 8.2 per cent.

During the plan period agriculture sector is likely to witness an average growth rate of 2.4 per cent, while industry, which contributes about 26 per cent to the GDP would grow by 8.2 per cent.

Services sector, the highest contributor to the GDP, is likely to clock double digit growth rate of 10 per cent.

India would witness a sustained growth of above 8 per cent per year in the period between 2007-08 to 2011-12 backed by the positive effects of foreign direct investment and infrastructure development on productivity of various sectors, NCAER said in its quarterly review.

If FDI continued to increase by $1.5 billion per year and public investment rose in real terms by 12 per cent per year, the current momentum of growth would be maintained, it said.

It, however, said that growth was still driven by the non-agricultural sectors and strong productivity enhancing measures combined with market development were essential to break from this impasse.

Agriculture has been unable to raise its performance beyond 2.5 per cent growth per year.  Projections of NCAER for the 11th plan period also shows that central government's fiscal position was likely to be within the three per cent mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

This improvement is based on higher collection in taxes and modest rise in spending, it said. The current account deficit has been projected at 2.3 per cent of GDP and the 17 per cent export growth is close to the forecast of draft Approach Paper of the 11th Five Year Plan.

In the quarterly review NCAER also highlighted the importance of investments, which had to be ensured for improved performance of the production sectors.

In the absence of such well-designed investments, like FDI and infrastructure development, to achieve the same output growth a higher investments may be required, it said.

A favourable external environment is important for economic growth and NCAER said a sustained strong export performance was critical for achieving a high real GDP growth of 8 per cent per year.

Source: PTI
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