Backed by investment activity and healthy performance of the services sector, the economy is expected to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2004-05, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
The country is likely to register a surplus of $5 billion on the current account of balance of payments.
BOP is strong and expected to remain healthy in the second half of the current fiscal, CMIE today said.
Pegging real Gross Domestic Product growth for the current fiscal at 6.2 per cent, the economic think-tank, in its monthly economic review, said a nominal agricultural growth, on top of 9.1 per cent in 2003-04 and revival in investment activity would be responsible for the growth in the financial year.
The economy has clocked a growth of 7.4 per cent and 6.6 per cent in the first and second quarters respectively. The third and fourth quarters are likely to show a growth of five and 5.5 per cent respectively, CMIE said.
The lower growth in third quarter would be largely due to the base effect of 10.4 per cent increase recorded in the third quarter of 2003-04, it added.
On the BOP in the first half, CMIE said the deficit on the current account of BOP was $3.2 billion.
The deficit on current account of BOP in July-September 2004 stood at $6.4 billion. This was the highest level of deficit in any quarter. The deterioration was due to steep 54 per cent rise in imports as against 10 per cent growth in exports, it added.